SpaceX IPO Buyers Will Likely Get A Better Price Later—Just Look At Historical IPO Returns - Tesla (NASDA
Morningstar’s analyst Owens said investors may get a better entry price for SpaceX by waiting beyond the IPO, citing a “margin of safety” likely lower on listing day. He tied a $1.9 trillion upside case to a $154 share price, with a ~7% probability. The company’s amended prospectus shows over 60% of shares under extended lockups beyond 180 days.
Used as a precedent for post-IPO drawdown risk when lockups unwind, informing expectations for SpaceX’s trading path.
The article cites Snowflake’s staggered lockup release as a historical analogue, noting its first-year drawdown after debut.
No direct impact expected on SNOW price; relevance is historical read-across only.
Background
Morningstar (via Owens) argues investors should wait for better entry after SpaceX’s IPO, citing lockup mechanics and historical IPO return patterns.
Why it matters
The key tradable element is the lockup calendar: >60% of shares (including Musk’s) face an extended lockup beyond the typical 180 days, which can increase sell pressure when restrictions lift.
Market relevance
Frames IPO entry timing as a risk-management decision driven by float size and lockup-driven supply over subsequent months.
Market effects
Could reinforce a broader caution around IPO pricing/lockup structures for high-profile, pre-profit growth listings.
Limited; US-focused IPO mechanics and sentiment spillover into IPO/tech risk appetite.
Low; primarily a US market microstructure/IPO setup story.
Alternative perspectives
The “minuscule” float and fast-tracked index inclusion could dominate, supporting a strong initial print despite later lockup-driven pressure.
The article’s downside case depends on Starship reusability scaling and orbital AI data-center commercialization—execution timing may differ from the lockup calendar.
Key entities
- companySpaceX
Subject of the IPO setup discussion: small float, locked-in price, and extended lockups beyond 180 days.
- research_firmMorningstar
Provides the recommendation to sit out initially and seek a cheaper margin of safety.
- companySnowflake Inc.
Referenced as a historical analogue for post-IPO drawdown following staggered lockups.
