SpaceX IPO: Wall Street analysts say the stock is worth only half of Elon Musk’s price
SpaceX’s IPO is set to start trading Friday on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, aiming to raise $75bn by selling 555m shares at $135. Analysts cited by Fortune’s Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez say the stock could be worth about $63 per share and that its addressable market may be $129bn versus $1.6tn claimed in Musk’s S-1.
Sell-side valuation skepticism ahead of SpaceX’s NASDAQ debut could drive volatile first-day trading and wider comps/read-across to space IPOs.
Fortune cites Morningstar analysis saying SpaceX is worth about $63/share versus the $135 IPO price and questions its $1.6T addressable market claims.
Higher probability of a weak/volatile open versus the $135 offer price, with downside risk if demand is sensitive to valuation narratives.
Background
SpaceX’s IPO is described as the largest in history, raising $75B via 555M shares at $135, starting trading June 12 on NASDAQ under ticker SPCX.
Why it matters
The article highlights sell-side skepticism (Morningstar) on valuation ($63 vs $135) and addressable market size ($129B vs $1.6T), which can affect positioning into the listing and expectations for post-IPO trading.
Market relevance
Valuation and market-size disputes are likely to increase first-day volatility and influence whether traders treat the IPO as a momentum trade or a valuation fade.
Market effects
Could reset expectations for space-economy IPO valuations and increase scrutiny of S-1 market-size assumptions.
Primarily US-listed IPO sentiment; may spill into broader risk appetite for high-growth tech/space listings.
Limited direct global impact, but valuation debate can influence international investor appetite for space-related growth stories.
Alternative perspectives
The $135 offer price may reflect strategic/optionality value and long-dated growth assumptions; first-day pricing can overshoot valuation models if demand is IPO-driven.
Bank research constraints and limited pre-launch independent coverage may mean the market is still forming a consensus; also, oversubscription/IPO mechanics (not discussed in detail here) can dominate near-term price action.
Key entities
- companySpaceX
Subject of the IPO valuation debate; analysts cited as valuing it far below the $135 offer price.
- research_firmMorningstar
Cited as publishing analysis that the stock is worth about $63/share and that the addressable market is smaller than claimed.
- venueNASDAQ
Exchange where the IPO is set to begin trading under ticker SPCX.
