ResMed Shares Slide Into The Weekend: What Is The Latest?
ResMed (ASX: RMD) fell 0.97% on the ASX, extending a 23.42% YTD decline, despite a 1.98% ASX 200 gain. Hedgeye Risk Management analyst Tom Tobin added ResMed as a formal short, citing at least 30% further downside and arguing GLP-1 drugs could structurally erode CPAP demand. ResMed counters with recent double-digit revenue growth, real-world data on higher CPAP initiation/adherence among GLP-1 users, and FY2026 gross margin targets of 62–63%.
Near-term sentiment is bearish due to a fresh, specific short thesis tied to GLP-1 read-through to sleep apnea device demand.
ResMed shares fell on the ASX as Hedgeye added RMD as a formal short, arguing GLP-1 drugs structurally erode CPAP demand.
Bias toward continued volatility/downside risk if investors prioritize the structural GLP-1 erosion narrative over management’s demand-generation counterpoints.
Background
The piece frames ResMed’s YTD decline as a market reassessment of long-term CPAP demand under accelerating GLP-1 adoption.
Why it matters
A new formal short thesis centers on three mechanisms (smaller OSA device TAM, narrowing diagnosis funnel, and direct demographic overlap with GLP-1-treated obesity). The counterweight is ResMed’s reported growth, margin targets, and real-world adherence data, plus an acquisition to diversify revenue.
Market relevance
Traders may reassess RMD’s long-duration demand risk versus near-term execution (AirSense 11 uptake, consumables resupply) and diversification (Noctrix).
Market effects
Highlights a key sector debate: whether GLP-1 weight-loss reduces OSA incidence/severity enough to impair CPAP device/consumables demand.
Primarily affects Australian-listed sentiment for sleep-therapy device names, with read-through to US ADR trading via the same ticker.
Connects obesity-drug clinical progress (Lilly tirzepatide/retatrutide data) to medical device demand expectations worldwide.
Alternative perspectives
Management’s real-world data claim (GLP-1 users more likely to initiate CPAP and show higher adherence/resupply) suggests GLP-1 could be demand-generative rather than purely substitutive.
Philips’ CPAP recall tailwind may fade, but the article also notes ResMed’s connected-device/outcomes strategy and the Noctrix Health acquisition as potential offsets to core OSA uncertainty.
Key entities
- companyResMed
Sleep therapy device maker; subject of the short thesis and described as having robust near-term fundamentals plus a planned Noctrix Health acquisition.
- analyst_firmHedgeye Risk Management (Tom Tobin)
Added ResMed as a formal short idea, citing at least another 30% downside.
- companyEli Lilly
Clinical data cited showing tirzepatide reduces OSA severity in obese patients; also referenced for next-gen retatrutide results.
- companyNoctrix Health
Acquisition target; deal described as $340M with expected close around June 1, 2026.
- companyPhilips
Recall of CPAP/BiPAP devices is cited as a prior market-share tailwind for ResMed.
