Robinhood's stock pops as analyst predicts World Cup will boost prediction markets revenue
Robinhood’s (HOOD) shares rose as much as 7% Monday after Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said the World Cup could boost its prediction markets revenue. Bernstein expects prediction markets to be Robinhood’s largest incremental 2026 revenue driver and estimates 2026 revenue could reach $586 million, up 286%, based on 2025 and 2026 trading volumes. The note cited record early World Cup activity on Kalshi and Polymarket and said Robinhood’s Rothera platform could compete with lower fees.
World Cup-linked growth expectations for Robinhood’s prediction markets platform could support near-term sentiment and multiple expansion.
Robinhood shares jumped as Bernstein said the World Cup could make prediction markets its largest incremental 2026 revenue driver.
Bullish bias for HOOD while World Cup prediction-market volumes remain elevated; upside likely fades if volumes disappoint.
Background
Robinhood recently launched its prediction market platform via a joint venture with Susquehanna called Rothera.
Why it matters
The article frames World Cup participation as a catalyst for higher prediction-market volumes and incremental 2026 revenue, supporting the stock’s move.
Market relevance
A same-day HOOD rally is attributed to a specific World Cup-driven prediction markets revenue thesis and supporting volume benchmarks.
Market effects
Highlights prediction markets as a potential monetization channel for retail trading apps, potentially drawing incremental attention to similar platforms.
US-focused election/prediction-market activity cited as a demand driver.
World Cup as a global event may broaden participation and liquidity in prediction markets, benefiting US platforms with scalable fee models.
Alternative perspectives
The revenue ramp is analyst-estimated and may be overstated if World Cup volumes normalize after early rounds.
HOOD’s prior revenue weakness tied to crypto trading slumps could limit how much prediction-market gains offset broader trading activity volatility.
Key entities
- companyRobinhood
Retail trading app whose prediction markets revenue outlook is cited as improving with the World Cup.
- analyst_firmBernstein
Provides the research note estimating prediction markets could become HOOD’s largest incremental 2026 revenue driver.
- companySusquehanna
Joint venture partner behind Robinhood’s Rothera prediction market platform.
- companyKalshi
Industry leader cited for record weekly volume in early June.
- companyPolymarket
Prediction market platform cited for World Cup contract volume.
