AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Valuation Check After Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance And BlueBird Launch Progress

Investors worldwide are seeking exposure to SpaceX ahead of its IPO, but direct access to shares is limited to select institutions and wealthy individuals, according to the report. Gagola Value Capital said $14 billion flowed into SpaceX-linked funds after Musk confirmed the IPO. Workarounds include secondary sales, ETFs (ERShares’ XVOR has ~15% SpaceX-linked holdings), related space stocks, and prediction markets (Kalshi: $29 million wagered).

AST SpaceMobile shares rose 53.5% in May, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The article links the move to investor expectations ahead of an upcoming SpaceX IPO and notes ASTS is up 389% over the past year. It says AST SpaceMobile has about $3 billion cash and expects 2026 revenue of $150 million to $200 million from U.S. government contracts and carrier partnerships.

Space stocks fell Monday after a strong run tied to anticipation of a SpaceX IPO, with pressure on AST SpaceMobile linked to a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket failure during a hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral, according to Benzinga. ASTS also faced concerns after a prior New Glenn mission missed its target orbit. Benzinga reports ASTS is still on track for its mid-June Falcon 9 BlueBirds launch; NASA said repairs could take “serious time,” with 2028 possible. ASTS was up 9.2% to $115.38 Tuesday.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE) fell about 32% after preliminary court approval for a shareholder derivative settlement revived dilution concerns tied to its capital realignment plan, which included debt restructuring and new share issuance. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rose about 10% after reaffirming FY2026 revenue guidance of $150M–$200M and confirming three Falcon 9 launches in mid-June. Planet Labs (PL) gained about 9% on quarterly revenue of $81.25M (+33% YoY) and higher remaining performance obligations

The article is an opinion piece on AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) titled “Failing Upwards.” It does not provide specific company or market facts, financial figures, or new developments. The author states they hold no positions in any mentioned stocks and that the piece is for informational purposes only, with no solicitation or investment advice.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares fell about 5% premarket after a Blue Origin New Glenn explosion during a hotfire test at Cape Canaveral, with Blue Origin saying all personnel were safe and an investigation is underway. Analyst Tim Farrar warned continuous service may not arrive before 2028 and that 2027 revenue could be limited. Deutsche Bank downgraded ASTS to Hold; Roth kept Buy but flagged deployment timing risk.