Stop Trying To Call The Top
The article argues that the AI rally remains supported by real demand, revenues, and supply-chain constraints, citing events such as SpaceX’s S-1 filing and Nvidia’s record earnings. It contrasts this with Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett’s view that AI is a “bubble.” The piece says it is adding to an existing EWY position tied to AI memory and plans additional trades on EWY and other AI supply-chain names.
Record earnings are used as evidence the AI infrastructure theme remains intact, supporting momentum in AI supply-chain names.
Article cites Nvidia reporting record earnings as confirmation that the AI buildout is supported by real demand and revenues.
Near-term upside bias for AI infrastructure/supply-chain exposure; volatility likely if “top-calling” narratives resurface.
Background
The article responds to prior Goldman messaging about AI/momentum euphoria cracking and argues the buildout is supported by real demand, then cites NVDA record earnings and SpaceX’s S-1 as recent “last week” developments.
Why it matters
Trading emphasis shifts from “calling tops” to participating in the AI supply-chain theme where technicals and options structure offer defined-risk exposure (notably EWY for Korea memory).
Market relevance
The piece is a theme-and-trade framing: it supports continued AI infrastructure read-through (especially memory/Korea) and discourages peak-calling narratives.
Market effects
Reinforces a read-across from AI compute to physical supply chain (memory, power, photonics, cooling, sensing, storage, logistics, semiconductor equipment).
Highlights South Korea memory exposure via EWY as a key transmission channel for AI infrastructure demand.
Frames AI buildout as an economy-wide capex/infrastructure cycle rather than a purely narrative-driven trade.
Alternative perspectives
“Bubble since the railroads” framing implies upside may be late-cycle and vulnerable to valuation compression even if infrastructure spending remains real.
The article doesn’t address potential memory oversupply, export restrictions, or capex timing lags that could break the supply-chain bid despite strong NVDA earnings.
Key entities
- public_companyNvidia
Cited for record earnings as evidence the AI theme is grounded in real revenues.
- public_companyNavitas Semiconductor
Cited as a less-obvious AI supply-chain name that moved higher.
- etfiShares MSCI South Korea ETF
Used as the vehicle for Korea memory/AI infrastructure exposure via an options trade.
- institutionBank of America (Michael Hartnett)
Provides the “biggest bubble since the railroads” narrative referenced by the article.
