Payments Stocks in the Stablecoin Era: 3 to Buy and 1 to Avoid
The article argues stablecoins—dollar-pegged tokens enabling cheap, instant blockchain transfers—pose a bigger competitive risk to PayPal than to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express. It says Visa/Mastercard earn mainly from merchant swipe fees and provide fraud/dispute services, while they have tested stablecoins for settlement. It cites PayPal’s slower active-account growth (426M in 2021 to 439M in 2025) and notes it launched PayPal USD in 2023.
Stablecoin narrative is framed as more of a competitive threat to PayPal than to Visa’s core swipe-fee model.
Article argues stablecoins are unlikely to derail Visa because it earns merchant swipe fees and is testing stablecoin settlement within its network.
Limited near-term impact expected; any volatility likely tied to broader payments sentiment rather than Visa-specific catalysts.
Background
Stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar and can be transferred cheaply/instantly over blockchain rails, potentially bypassing traditional payment networks.
Why it matters
The article is a comparative thesis: it argues Visa/Mastercard/AmEx are structurally less exposed than PayPal because of swipe-fee economics, consumer protection, and ongoing stablecoin integration; it frames PayPal as more exposed due to its transaction-cut model and slower account growth.
Market relevance
This is primarily a sector narrative piece that could influence positioning within payments—especially relative-value trades favoring card networks over PayPal—without introducing new company-specific facts.
Market effects
Reinforces a payments-ecosystem split: card networks framed as resilient due to merchant economics and fraud/dispute services; digital wallets framed as more exposed to stablecoin settlement.
No explicit regional catalyst; likely US-focused sentiment spillover within payments.
Stablecoin adoption is global, but the article’s conclusions are about US-listed payment business models.
Alternative perspectives
Stablecoin settlement could still pressure card economics over time via merchant acceptance shifts or fee renegotiations; PayPal’s PYUSD may mitigate risk more than the article suggests.
Regulatory/antitrust outcomes are cited as the bigger threat for card networks, but the article provides no timing; for PayPal, adoption of PYUSD and integration success could offset some disintermediation risk.
Key entities
- companyVisa
Merchant swipe-fee model and stablecoin testing/integration within its networks are cited as insulation.
- companyMastercard
Stablecoin integration is framed as upgrading its rails rather than replacing them.
- companyAmerican Express
Own-balance-sheet card model and stablecoin exploration for transfers are cited as buffers.
- companyPayPal
Stablecoins are framed as undermining its fee-based digital payments model; PYUSD launch is cited.
