JPMorgan backs On, Adidas as slower Nike comeback aids rivals By Investing.com
JPMorgan resumed coverage of Adidas and On Holding with Overweight ratings, citing a slower-than-expected Nike recovery that keeps rivals’ market-share gains going. For Q2, it forecasts Adidas 14% topline and 16% EBIT growth; On 26% topline and 45% adjusted EBITDA growth. Price targets: €230 Adidas (Dec 2027) and $51 On. Puma and JD Sports set to Neutral.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The actionable element is the change in analyst stance (resumed coverage/Overweight vs Neutral) plus quantified Q2 growth expectations and a catalyst watch for On.
Market read
This is a sector read-across trade setup: slow Nike recovery is used to justify Overweight on Adidas and On, while Puma and JD Sports remain capped by near-term earnings headwinds.
What to watch
Promotional intensity and freight/USD tailwinds are cited as offsets; if these reverse, the valuation support for the “consistent-delivery” group may weaken.
Background
JPMorgan frames European sporting goods as split between steady performers (Adidas, On) and turnaround/reset names (Puma, JD Sports), with Nike’s recovery pace as the key driver.
Ticker impact
JD Sports was initiated at Neutral with a 90 pence target, with JPMorgan pointing to continued exposure to a still-struggling Nike.
Slightly negative/defensive bias versus the Overweight group if Nike recovery remains slow.
The article explicitly links the thesis to Nike’s ongoing struggles and promotional environment, which affects near-term earnings expectations.
Market effects
Reinforces a “consistent-delivery” vs “reset & rebuild” framework for European sporting goods, potentially rotating flows toward Adidas/On.
Could influence European retail/sporting-goods relative performance, especially in UK/Euro-listed names.
Nike recovery pace is treated as a key read-across driver for global athletic footwear/apparel demand and margins into 2027.
Counterpoint
If Nike’s recovery accelerates faster than JPMorgan assumes, the “window” for Adidas/On share gains could narrow, reducing the re-rating thesis.
Key entities
- financial_institutionJPMorgan
Resumed coverage and set Overweight/Neutral ratings with specific Q2 forecasts and multi-quarter re-rating expectations.
- analystWendy Liu
JPMorgan analyst cited a slower Nike comeback extending the market-share window for Adidas and On.
- corporateAnta Sports
Purchased a 29% stake in Puma, cited as providing takeover optionality and limiting near-term downside.



