Sasol Ltd. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $14.45, Implies 28% Upside

Sasol, the South African energy and chemicals company, said in a trading statement it expects FY earnings per share of R17.50 to R19.50, up 65% to 84% from R10.60 a year earlier, as oil and fuel prices rose after US and Israel strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at R58-62 billion versus R51.8 billion.

Sasol said it expects EBITDA of up to R62 billion for the year ended June 30, up from R52 billion a year earlier, citing higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war. CEO Simon Baloyi highlighted increased coal-to-liquids and refinery output, renewable buildout, and a 30% emissions cut by 2030. Sasol’s Oryx gas-to-liquids output was halted after the conflict began.

Sasol said it expects headline EPS to rise 2% to 14% for the year to June, after R22.4bn in the prior year, as profit gains from higher volumes offset easing writedowns. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at R58bn to R62bn, up to 20%, helped by a 4% volume rise and improved fuel differentials. Impairments before tax are expected at R16.8bn. Full-year results are due 1 Sep.

Sasol said its Secunda plant produced its highest annual output in five years after its coal-destoning facility improved coal quality. The company expects performance to stay within or above guidance and said 2026 results are supported by stronger output and a better macro backdrop. Chemicals and energy units also beat expectations. Full-year results are due Sept. 1.

Sasol shares have doubled in 2024, helped by higher oil prices after the Iran conflict, with Brent up 36% since the start of the war. Bloomberg data show only two buy ratings remain out of nine after downgrades by Nedbank and Citigroup. Analysts cite limited upside, carbon liabilities from coal-heavy operations, and risks around Secunda’s value and potential terminal decline.

Albertsons Companies said it is voluntarily recalling four ready-to-eat products containing jalapeños supplied by Taylor Farms, including items sold at Randalls in Texas. The recall followed a supplier recall tied to an ongoing federal investigation and an FDA probe of a Salmonella Javiana outbreak. FDA reported 345 illnesses in 27 states, 36 hospitalizations, no deaths.