Goldman Sachs Names the Asian Currencies Riding the AI Boom. South Korea and Taiwan Are Leading
According to a Goldman Sachs research report cited by CNBC, Asian FX markets are splitting between AI and semiconductor exporters (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia) and energy-sensitive economies (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines). Goldman expects South Korea’s current account surplus to nearly double to about $300B, supporting the won. It forecasts outperformance for won, Taiwan dollar, yuan, rupee and ringgit, but bearish views on baht and rupiah.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The actionable element is the bank’s directional FX positioning: bullish stances for KRW, TWD, CNY, INR, MYR, and bearish stances for THB and IDR, plus a specific USD-CNY forecast level.
Market read
Traders can use the bank’s relative FX call to position around AI-export fundamentals versus energy and USD headwinds.
What to watch
The article does not quantify hedging flows, carry trade dynamics, or near-term central bank reaction functions beyond broad “unchanged” policy, which can dominate FX moves in the short run.
Background
Goldman frames Asian FX as splitting between AI and chip-export beneficiaries versus energy-cost vulnerable economies, amid a stronger USD backdrop.
Ticker impact
Goldman expects Taiwan dollar outperformance from robust semiconductor exports and a very large current-account surplus.
Bias toward continued TWD outperformance over the next few months.
The text cites Goldman’s expectations for current-account surplus near 25% of GDP and export growth of 40% to 70% in 2026.
Market effects
Reinforces a read-across from AI infrastructure and semiconductor export strength into regional FX performance, favoring chip-linked economies.
Suggests a widening FX divergence within Asia, with AI beneficiaries (KR, TW, SG, MY) outperforming energy-sensitive peers (TH, ID, PH).
Supports the broader USD strength narrative (via higher oil and hawkish Fed) while arguing AI capex can offset it for select Asian currencies.
Counterpoint
FX outperformance may be overstated if AI capex slows, if geopolitics disrupts supply chains, or if USD strength persists longer than Goldman assumes.
Key entities
- bank researchGoldman Sachs
Cited as the source of the AI-driven FX divergence framework and the specific FX forecasts/stances.
- countrySouth Korea
Semiconductor and memory export strength is linked to record current-account surplus and won support.
- countryTaiwan
Semiconductor exports are linked to large current-account surplus and continued TWD outperformance.
- countryChina
Yuan resilience is attributed to advanced manufacturing and yuan internationalization, with a 6.50 USD-CNY forecast.
- countryThailand
Baht is flagged as bearish due to weaker gold prices and declining real rates.
