The oil majors are about to report booming profits. These smaller stocks may be better buys
CNBC cites energy-market volatility tied to Iran and attacks in the region, with WTI swinging from over $90 to the high $60s and back. It highlights upcoming earnings for ExxonMobil and Chevron (July 31), Shell (day before), Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips (Aug 4 and 6), with analysts expecting large EPS jumps. It also reports Citi upgrades to Chevron and calls on FLNC, NRGV, FPS, NVT, and CCJ.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
For traders, the actionable element is the scheduled earnings calendar for XOM and CVX (July 31) and the later dates for MPC and COP, plus discrete analyst upgrade narratives for several non-oil names.
Market read
This is primarily a catalyst calendar plus sell-side upgrade/downgrade commentary, with geopolitical risk described as a volatility driver for oil.
What to watch
The excerpt relies heavily on analyst estimates and macro narratives (Iran, Russia) without providing new company-specific operational updates, so execution and guidance details at release time are the real swing factors.
Background
The piece frames energy markets around geopolitical risk (Iran shipping/Hormuz) and refinery disruptions, then pivots to sell-side commentary ahead of major oil earnings.
Ticker impact
Article says ExxonMobil is due Friday, July 31, with analysts expecting a doubling or tripling of earnings.
Likely elevated pre-earnings positioning and post-earnings gap risk if results miss the very high bar.
The text provides a specific upcoming earnings date and magnitude of consensus expectations, but no new company-specific disclosure beyond analyst estimates.
Article highlights Chevron earnings due Friday, July 31, and notes Bank of America’s upgrade to a Chevron top pick.
Potential upside bias into the print, with downside risk if guidance or margins fail to justify “monster earnings” expectations.
The article includes a concrete analyst stance (BofA top pick) and the earnings timing, but does not provide new Chevron fundamentals or guidance.
Marathon Petroleum earnings are scheduled for August 4, with analysts expecting a more than 700% surge in earnings.
High probability of volatility; direction depends on whether the company can validate the extreme earnings surge expectations.
The article gives a specific earnings date and the magnitude of expected earnings change, but no new MPC operational or guidance details.
ConocoPhillips earnings are scheduled for August 6, within the article’s broader “monster earnings” expectations for oil majors.
Moderate pre-earnings volatility; likely less immediate than XOM/CVX given later date.
The text names COP and its earnings date but does not provide a specific EPS magnitude or analyst action for COP in the excerpt.
Citi analyst Vikram Bagri upgrades Fluence to buy/high risk, citing storage growth and a potential first hyperscaler customer order.
Potential momentum into upcoming earnings if investors believe the hyperscaler order thesis is credible.
The article provides an upgrade, a target, and a specific thesis, but it also says FLNC may miss consensus, which tempers conviction.
Citi upgrades Energy Vault Holdings to buy/high risk, citing lower cost of capital and growth in recurring investment income.
Stock may react positively to the upgrade, but expect headline-driven swings due to the “high risk” label and competition concerns.
The excerpt includes a clear upgrade thesis and target, but no new company event or data beyond analyst commentary.
Baird rates Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) Outperform with a $55 target, citing vertical integration, lead times, and a $2.4B backlog.
Potential upside bias if the market treats the backlog and lead-time advantage as durable.
The article provides specific analyst claims (rating, target, backlog), but this is still sell-side commentary rather than a new corporate disclosure.
Baird assigns nVent Electric PLC (NVT) an Outperform rating and $188 target, tied to liquid cooling and substation power exposure.
Likely positive reaction to the upgrade narrative, with risk if data-center capex expectations soften.
The excerpt contains an upgrade and target but no new NVT-specific operational update beyond the analyst’s framing.
Market effects
Oil majors’ earnings expectations are framed as potentially very strong, which can spill over to integrateds, refiners, and refined-product sentiment.
Middle East shipping risk around Hormuz is highlighted as a driver of oil price volatility and risk pricing.
Refinery disruption in Russia is described as tightening refined-product supply, reinforcing the macro tailwind for diesel-linked margins.
Counterpoint
The article’s “monster earnings” setup may be priced in; if results or guidance disappoint, the same high expectations can trigger sharp downside gaps.
Key entities
- public_companyExxonMobil
Earnings due Friday, July 31, with analysts expecting a doubling or tripling of earnings.
- public_companyChevron
Earnings due Friday, July 31, and described as a Bank of America top pick in integrateds and refining.
- public_companyMarathon Petroleum
Earnings scheduled for August 4, with analysts expecting a more than 700% earnings surge.
- public_companyConocoPhillips
Earnings scheduled for August 6 as part of the oil majors’ earnings run-up.
- public_companyFluence
Citi upgrade to buy/high risk, with thesis around storage growth and a potential hyperscaler customer order.
