KBW upgrades Core Scientific after AMD leases raise contracted value, eyes 35% rise
KBW upgraded Core Scientific (NASDAQ: CORZ) to Outperform from Market Perform, citing its 529 MW AMD lease package. KBW raised its price target to $28 from $25, implying 35% total return. The 15-year deals include 377 MW triple-net to AMD and 152 MW modified-gross to a neocloud, with potential $14B base contracted revenue. KBW also lifted 2027 EBITDA to $629.7M.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
KBW’s upgrade argues the AMD lease package increases contracted revenue visibility and supports a higher equity valuation floor, while still flagging financing and execution risk.
Market read
Traders may reprice CORZ based on the new contracted-revenue valuation framework and the raised 2027 EBITDA estimate tied to lease deliveries.
What to watch
Core Scientific has not disclosed how the $14B potential revenue splits between triple-net and modified-gross leases, which could change NOI per MW and the implied equity valuation.
Background
Core Scientific is securing long-duration power capacity leases tied to AMD and a neocloud customer, with deliveries starting in 1H 2027.
Ticker impact
KBW upgraded Core Scientific to Outperform, citing its 529 MW AMD lease package that lifts the valuation floor despite financing and execution risks.
Near-term upside bias as traders reprice contracted-value support and the raised 2027 EBITDA estimate, though execution and financing risks remain.
The article provides specific lease structure, contracted revenue magnitude, cap-rate valuation math, and a raised 2027 EBITDA estimate tied directly to the AMD lease deliveries.
Market effects
Reinforces the market narrative that AI-related power demand can translate into contracted cash flows for crypto-mining infrastructure operators.
Potentially highlights Texas and Oklahoma power-interconnection buildout as a near-term capacity pipeline for data-center and mining-adjacent load.
Limited direct global read-through beyond AI power procurement and contracted revenue structures.
Counterpoint
The valuation-floor uplift may be overstated if modified-gross economics and revenue allocation between lease structures are less favorable than assumed.
Key entities
- companyCore Scientific
Subject of the upgrade, with 529 MW AMD-related lease agreements and a raised 2027 EBITDA estimate.
- companyAMD
Provides credit support for the neocloud lease and is the direct lessee for 377 MW under triple-net terms.
- analyst_firmKeefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)
Upgraded Core Scientific to Outperform and raised its price target to $28.
