Driven by AI and LNG, TC Energy Raises North American Natural Gas Demand Forecast
TC Energy Corp. (TRP) has again raised its long-term outlook for North American natural gas consumption and is evaluating how to deploy its sprawling pipeline network across Canada and the United States to meet the coming surge. The Calgary-based pipeline operator now expects natural gas demand on the continent to expand by 51 billion cubic feet per day between 2025 and 2035, fueled by liquefied natural gas exports, gas-fired power generation and industrial growth.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast revision to 51 bcf/d, plus capacity offering uptake and near-term Crossroads FID timing, provides incremental information for traders assessing midstream growth and utilization prospects.
Market read
Traders may re-rate TRP on stronger demand fundamentals and clearer near-term capex decision milestones, especially given LNG and AI/data-center power demand linkages.
What to watch
The article emphasizes interest and approvals but does not quantify incremental contracted revenue, cost inflation, or execution risk for Crossroads capacity expansion and Appalachia ramp-up.
Background
TC Energy is a major North American gas pipeline operator, and its long-term demand outlook is a key input to throughput and contracted revenue expectations.
Ticker impact
TC Energy raised its 2025-2035 North American gas demand forecast to 51 bcf/d and outlined pipeline capacity deployment plans.
Moderately positive bias for TRP as traders price in stronger throughput expectations and near-term capex decision milestones.
The article provides fresh, company-attributable forecast revisions and new approvals/timing (Crossroads FID in Q4, Appalachia project approval) that can change forward expectations, though it does not include a new earnings beat or explicit guidance range beyond the demand outlook.
Market effects
Reinforces the North American gas infrastructure build theme tied to LNG, data centers, and power generation, potentially supporting sentiment for pipeline operators and gas midstream.
Highlights demand growth concentration in the U.S. heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, which may shift attention to throughput and capacity utilization in those corridors.
LNG-linked demand framing can influence broader gas pricing expectations and the perceived durability of LNG export-driven gas consumption.
Counterpoint
Demand forecasts may be optimistic if LNG export timelines, data-center power sourcing, or regulatory/community constraints slow actual build-outs.
Key entities
- companyTC Energy Corp.
Raised long-term North American gas demand forecast and discussed pipeline capacity deployment, Crossroads FID timing, and Appalachia project approval.
- projectCrossroads project
365-kilometre pipeline in Indiana and Ohio; company expects a final investment decision in Q4 and plans to expand capacity by 1.5 bcf/d.
- projectAppalachia Supply Project
US$1.5 billion Columbia Gas expansion backed by a 20-year agreement, approved by management as a visible growth catalyst.
