There's a 58% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike in October. These Are Stocks to Buy Anyway.
CME Group’s FedWatch estimates a 44.1% chance of a Fed rate hike at the mid-September meeting and a 57.7% chance for late October, based on 30-day fed funds futures. The article highlights UNH, JPM, and CVX as stocks it says could perform despite higher rates, citing UNH Q2 2026 earnings up about 54% YoY and JPM Q2 net interest income of $25.6B.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
It is a macro scenario and stock-picking article. The only concrete new data points are the cited FedWatch probabilities and the article’s recitation of recent company performance metrics, not new company disclosures.
Market read
Traders may use the FedWatch probabilities for scenario planning, but the article does not provide new, tradable company-specific catalysts.
What to watch
No discussion of UNH regulatory/medical cost trends, JPM credit-cycle risk, or CVX oil-price sensitivity and hedging, which could dominate in a real rate-shock scenario.
Background
The piece uses CME Group’s FedWatch probabilities to argue that even with a higher chance of an October rate hike, certain stocks could still perform.
Ticker impact
The article cites CME Group’s FedWatch probabilities, estimating a 57.7% chance of an October rate hike.
Limited direct impact on CME shares from this article alone.
The only CME-related detail is the quoted FedWatch probability; there is no new CME operational, regulatory, or financial disclosure.
UnitedHealth is presented as a stock to buy even if October rate hikes occur, citing 20% YTD gains and 54% YoY Q2 earnings growth.
Near-term price impact is likely modest because this is a macro-themed stock-pick rather than a new UNH disclosure.
The text provides specific performance and earnings-growth figures, but it does not report any fresh UNH event (no new guidance, filing, or catalyst dated today).
JPMorgan is pitched as benefiting from higher rates, with Q2 net interest income of $25.6B up 10% YoY.
Low incremental impact; the content is a strategy argument using already-known financial metrics.
It includes concrete Q2 NII numbers, but does not introduce a new JPM event or policy-sensitive update beyond the general rate-hike scenario.
Chevron is positioned as an inflation and fuel-price beneficiary, noting shares up over 20% YTD and linking inflation to higher fuel prices.
Limited immediate trading signal; it is a scenario-based recommendation without a new CVX-specific catalyst.
The piece provides performance context and a macro linkage, but no new CVX operational update, guidance, or event is disclosed.
Market effects
Reinforces a rates narrative: insurers and large banks framed as resilient or beneficiaries; oil framed as inflation hedge.
Primarily US-centric positioning tied to Fed policy expectations.
Fuel-price and Iran-war inflation linkage can spill into global energy and inflation expectations.
Counterpoint
Rate-hike odds rising can still pressure equity multiples broadly; the article’s “buy anyway” framing may underweight valuation and duration risk.
Key entities
- companyCME Group
Cited as the source of FedWatch-implied probabilities for future FOMC rate hikes.
- companyUnitedHealth Group
Presented as relatively rate-neutral with recent earnings and guidance momentum.
- companyJPMorgan Chase
Presented as benefiting from higher rates via net interest income.
- companyChevron
Presented as benefiting from sustained high fuel prices and inflation.
