Ryanair’s Profits Slumped, but Is the Market Overlooking Its Biggest Advantage?

Ryanair (RYA, RYAAY) reduced winter capacity to mitigate exposure to unhedged jet fuel prices of $140 per barrel, aiming to save EUR70-100 million. The airline warns of potential airfare increases if fuel prices remain high. Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are contributing to inflation and bond yield increases.

Ryanair reduced its 2027 passenger target to 214 million from 216 million due to high unhedged jet fuel costs, aiming to cut winter 2026 losses by €70-100 million. The airline also warned of potential airfare increases if oil prices remain high. August passenger numbers rose 6% year-over-year to 22.2 million, with flat traffic expected for the winter season. Irish airport data showed a 6.5% increase in Q2 2026 passengers compared to 2025.

Ryanair reduced its fiscal 2027 traffic target to 214 million passengers from 216 million, citing high fuel costs and market conditions. The airline, which has 80% of its fuel hedged at $67/barrel, aims to limit winter losses by keeping capacity flat, potentially saving €70m-€100m. Ryanair shares rose 2% despite a 20% drop since the Iran war. August traffic grew 6% to 22.2 million passengers, with a steady 96% load factor.

Ryanair reduced its annual passenger target to 214 million from 216 million to limit exposure to high oil prices, expecting flat winter passenger numbers. The airline warned that European air fares may rise if oil prices stay high, potentially causing some airlines to fail. Ryanair hedged 80% of its jet fuel at $67 a barrel, anticipating a profitable year but below 2023's record. Brent crude reached $97.04 a barrel before easing. Wizz Air reported a 25.9% increase in passenger numbers for August

The EU Parliament has announced new travel regulations affecting airlines like Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz, and Jet2. Key changes include fare transparency, mandatory display of hand luggage costs, and enhanced passenger rights. Ryanair criticized the rules, while industry groups expressed mixed views. The UK may adopt similar measures. Changes take effect next summer.

The U.S. NTSB said a Boeing 737-800 operated by Malta Air for Ryanair suffered a right-engine fan blade failure shortly after takeoff from Thessaloniki, Greece on July 10. Fragments shattered a window and a 61-year-old passenger was injured after partial cabin depressurization. Investigators found bird remains but haven’t identified the cause; Ryanair said the flight returned after a window dislodged.