BofA raises obesity market forecast on Lilly stock international strength
Bank of America raised its global obesity market forecast to $125B by 2036 from $114B, citing strong first-half results from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk. BofA kept a Buy rating on Lilly. It highlighted 174% YoY growth for Mounjaro internationally, raised Zepbound blended price to about $525 per prescription for FY2026, and expects international sales to rise to 42% near term and 46% by 2036.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
For traders, the actionable element is the updated forecast framework: higher long-term market size, stronger assumed international Mounjaro growth, and a revised Zepbound blended price estimate for fiscal 2026.
Market read
A sell-side forecast upgrade with concrete model inputs (international growth, U.S. net pricing, Zepbound blended price) can shift GLP-1 positioning and relative valuation expectations.
What to watch
Competitive dynamics (generic penetration) and pricing pressure from Medicare Bridge annualization could offset international strength if U.S. price declines accelerate beyond the model.
Background
The piece centers on Bank of America raising its obesity market forecast, attributing the change to Lilly and Novo Nordisk first-half performance and updated pricing assumptions.
Ticker impact
BofA raised its global obesity market forecast to $125B by 2036, citing strong first-half tirzepatide results from Eli Lilly and maintained Buy.
Likely supportive for near-term sentiment, but magnitude depends on whether traders view the change as incremental versus already-priced obesity optimism.
The article is an analyst forecast update with specific model drivers (Mounjaro international growth, U.S. net pricing, Zepbound blended price), but it is not a new Lilly earnings print or regulatory/product event.
Market effects
Reinforces bullish read-through for GLP-1 obesity demand, especially international tirzepatide growth and pricing resilience versus prior estimates.
Highlights non-U.S. Mounjaro momentum across 40 core markets, supporting international obesity trade positioning.
Supports global obesity market expansion assumptions through 2036, potentially affecting cross-asset risk appetite for the GLP-1 complex.
Counterpoint
BofA’s model may underweight future generic semaglutide disruption, which the article notes is not fully captured in the 2026-2036 framework.
Key entities
- companyEli Lilly
Subject of the article via BofA’s raised obesity market forecast and cited strong first-half tirzepatide results.
- financial_institutionBank of America
Analyst firm that raised its global obesity market forecast and maintained a Buy rating on Lilly.
- companyNovo Nordisk
Cited as another driver of the raised obesity market forecast due to strong first-half results.
