Michael Burry's Nebius Short Is Underwater After a 454% Revenue Quarter
Michael Burry disclosed a short in Nebius Group (NBIS) around $212 per share on Aug. 6. On Aug. 12, Nebius reported Q2 results, with revenue up 454% year over year to $582.3 million, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. The stock rose about 34% to around $259. The article cites AI cloud revenue growth, EBITDA margin, cash, and depreciation/capex concerns.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
Nebius’s Q2 results and reaffirmed guidance directly challenge the demand and funding parts of the short thesis, while the article argues the depreciation economics remain the key unresolved issue for profitability.
Market read
Traders can reassess the short thesis after a large revenue beat and margin improvement, but should monitor whether future earnings are pressured by depreciation and capital intensity.
What to watch
The article does not quantify customer churn, contract renewal rates, or the durability of prepayment terms beyond the quarter, which could affect forward cash conversion and margin sustainability.
Background
Michael Burry disclosed a short in Nebius Group on Aug. 6, framing concerns around depreciation and off-balance-sheet obligations.
Ticker impact
Nebius reported Q2 revenue up 454% to $582.3M, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and the stock jumped about 34% after the print.
Near-term bias is upward versus the short thesis, but volatility remains because depreciation and off-balance-sheet obligations are still framed as unresolved.
The article cites strong growth, improving EBITDA margin, operating cash flow of $2.2B, and $8B cash, while also emphasizing D&A at $259.7M (45% of revenue) and five-year depreciation that could pressure future earnings once capex fully hits the income statement.
Market effects
Supports the bull case for AI cloud infrastructure demand and prepayment-backed capacity, while keeping accounting-depreciation scrutiny in focus for the group.
No specific regional market linkage beyond US-listed AI infrastructure sentiment.
Reinforces global AI data-center buildout narratives, but the article provides no country-specific policy or supply-chain shock.
Counterpoint
Even with revenue growth, the short case may reassert if depreciation timing and capital intensity compress margins once the full capex base is reflected in earnings.
Key entities
- companyNebius Group
AI cloud company whose Q2 results and guidance are used to assess the short thesis.
- personMichael Burry
Disclosed a short position in Nebius on Aug. 6, later discussed as underwater after the results.
- personArkady Volozh
Founder and CEO who wrote in the quarterly letter that 2027 capacity could be sold on current terms.
