KBW maintains ‘Outperform’ rating on Riot Platforms with $35 price target following Anthropic deal
KBW maintained an Outperform rating on Riot Platforms (RIOT) and a $35 price target after Riot disclosed a non-binding letter of intent for a single tenant to lease all 756 MW of planned critical IT capacity at its Corsicana, Texas site. Riot said a full-site lease could generate over $1B annual rent, and it expects the LOI to be prioritized for 2026 execution.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The LOI for Corsicana is a meaningful demand signal and could become Riot’s second major AI data-center lease, but traders should treat it as probabilistic until terms are finalized and the LOI converts to an executed lease.
Market read
Fresh LOI milestone plus reiterated upside target increases attention on Riot’s ability to monetize secured AI power capacity, but the lack of disclosed lease terms limits immediate conviction.
What to watch
Corsicana economics depend on delivery schedule, permitting, and financing; the article provides illustrative rent and capex but no definitive construction budget or development financing plan.
Background
Riot is expanding AI data-center capacity via large leased power sites, including the already-executed Rockdale transaction.
Ticker impact
Riot disclosed a non-binding LOI for a prospective tenant to lease the full 756 MW Corsicana IT capacity, alongside a KBW $35 PT reiteration.
Near-term upside bias for RIOT on AI-infrastructure demand narrative, with volatility risk until the LOI converts to a signed lease with disclosed economics.
The article adds a concrete milestone (full-site LOI) and reiterates upside economics (potential >$1B annual rent), but it explicitly notes the tenant, rate, and credit support are not disclosed and the LOI remains subject to further work.
Market effects
Reinforces the AI data-center power-constrained leasing theme, highlighting value of secured, fully approved utility capacity.
Corsicana, Texas ERCOT site with direct 345-kV interconnection may strengthen regional competition for AI load.
Supports broader AI infrastructure capex and leasing demand expectations, though details remain pending.
Counterpoint
Because the LOI is non-binding and lacks tenant, rental rate, and credit support, the market may be overpricing the probability and timing of a signed lease.
Key entities
- companyRiot Platforms
Entered a non-binding LOI for a prospective tenant to lease the full 756 MW Corsicana critical IT capacity; KBW reiterates Outperform and $35 PT.
- analyst_firmKBW
Maintained Outperform rating and $35 price target on Riot, citing projected total return and Corsicana’s power advantage.
- financial_institutionMorgan Stanley
Provided a $573 million interim loan for initial Rockdale development and long-lead equipment.
