Tech outperformance continues with yields pressured by soft PPI - 13th August 2026
US stocks rose and Treasuries steepened after July US PPI came in softer than expected, with headline PPI flat M/M and core PPI up 0.2% M/M. Initial jobless claims rose to 209k. Fed speakers Barkin said the need for hikes is uncertain, while Hammack reiterated a call to raise rates. Tech led gains; Silver Lake reportedly talks to buy Workday.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
Softer PPI and higher initial claims push traders toward a higher probability of a September hold, steepening the Treasury curve and lifting rate-sensitive equity sectors. However, hawkish Fed commentary and mixed PCE components keep upside risk to yields.
Market read
This is a macro-driven rates and risk sentiment read-through: softer PPI increases odds of a September hold, steepens the curve, and supports tech/real estate leadership.
What to watch
PPI is softer, but PCE-relevant components are mixed and BEA methodology revisions on Sept 30 could complicate how traders interpret core PCE momentum.
Background
The article centers on a cooler-than-expected US PPI print and its implications for September Fed policy, alongside jobless claims and Fed speaker commentary.
Market effects
Lower inflation prints support duration-sensitive growth/tech and rate-sensitive real estate, while keeping credit and curve trades active.
EUR and CAD outperform on relative rate expectations; USD flat suggests limited FX impulse beyond rates.
Treasury curve bull steepening can transmit to global funding costs and equity discount rates, especially for long-duration tech.
Counterpoint
Fed speak is mixed, and a hawkish voter (Hammack) argues rates should rise now, which can reverse the hold-trade if inflation re-accelerates.
Key entities
- macro_releaseUS PPI
Headline PPI unchanged M/M vs 0.2% expected; core PPI 0.2% M/M vs 0.3% consensus; Y/Y rates eased.
- macro_releaseInitial jobless claims
Claims rose to 209k from 200k, above the 202k forecast, while continued claims fell.
- policy_commentaryFed speaker Hammack
Reiterated call to raise rates now, arguing policy is not restrictive enough to hit 2% inflation.
- policy_commentaryFed speaker Barkin
Said it is an open question whether hikes are needed, with inflation possibly on a sustainable path lower.
