Grayscale: ETH, SOL Supply Growth Could Fall Below Gold by 2031
Grayscale says proposed tokenomics changes could reduce Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) annual supply growth below gold by 2031. It estimates ETH supply growth at about 0.4% and SOL near 1.1%, versus gold around 1.8% and CPI 3.3%. Proposals include Ethereum EIP-8361 and Solana SIMD-0550/0553, still in governance.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The key trade input is the conditional issuance math: ETH modeled to ~0.4% annual supply growth by 2031, SOL to ~1.1%, both below gold’s ~1.8% and CPI’s ~3.3% cited in the article.
Market read
Traders may reprice ETH and SOL based on governance momentum and scarcity expectations, but the article is explicitly conditional and not a finalized policy change.
What to watch
The article assumes immediate implementation and stable network conditions; real outcomes depend on staking ratio dynamics, validator behavior, and fee environment that drive actual burn versus issuance.
Background
Grayscale’s note compares tokenomics overhaul proposals for Ethereum (EIP-8361) and Solana (SIMD-0550 and SIMD-0553), framing them as potential scarcity accelerants versus gold and CPI.
Ticker impact
Grayscale cites EIP-8361 “Tapered Issuance Burn,” modeling ETH annual supply growth falling to about 0.4% by 2031 if implemented.
Bullish bias for ETH on governance momentum, but likely capped until implementation details and network conditions are confirmed.
The article provides explicit modeled issuance/supply-growth targets and a concrete governance path, but stresses proposals are not finalized and assumes immediate, unchanged network conditions.
Grayscale projects Solana’s supply growth near 1.1% by 2031 via SIMD-0550 faster disinflation and SIMD-0553 fee burn restructuring.
Potential upside bias for SOL if traders price higher burn and faster inflation decline, with volatility around governance progress.
The text includes specific inflation and supply-growth modeling plus a stated view that Solana’s plan has broader support, but it remains conditional on proposals passing.
Market effects
Reinforces a broader crypto theme: tokenomics changes (burns, issuance tapering) as a tradable catalyst tied to governance execution risk.
Limited direct regional impact; primarily affects global crypto risk sentiment and ETP flows tied to ETH/SOL.
Could influence cross-asset positioning in major smart-contract and L1 tokens if scarcity models gain traction.
Counterpoint
Modeled scarcity may not translate into price if demand for security and staking participation falls, or if governance delays push the timeline out.
Key entities
- protocol_changeEthereum Improvement Proposal 8361 (EIP-8361)
“Tapered Issuance Burn” would burn a rising share of validator rewards as staking ratio climbs, phasing to 100% near ~60.25M ETH staked.
- protocol_changeSolana Improvement Document SIMD-0550
Doubles the yearly decline rate of Solana’s inflation, compressing disinflation toward a lower long-term floor.
- protocol_changeSolana Improvement Document SIMD-0553
Restructures transaction fee burn so more SOL is permanently destroyed rather than recycled to validators.
- researchGrayscale research note (Zach Pandl quote)
States Solana’s plan has broader support and is more likely to be implemented than Ethereum’s.
