The Morning Briefing: HMRC tax receipts hit £322.7bn as advisers warn of IHT and CGT traps

Oil prices are set for a weekly gain, with Brent up 5.5% and WTI up 5% due to US-Iran tensions. Gold rose 1.87% to $4,597.83/oz, poised for a 5% weekly gain. Bitcoin surged 8% to $77,433.36, up 24% weekly, amid US Treasury bond buyback plans.

The U.S. Treasury announced it will double its buybacks of longer-term bonds to $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, aiming to stabilize the bond market and lower yields. This move is expected to ease borrowing costs and support risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, which rose 5% and 2.7% respectively. The Treasury's action is not new stimulus but a liquidity measure. Bitcoin's rally also coincides with a White House meeting on crypto regulation.

The US Leading Economic Index rose 0.2% in July, beating expectations of 0.1%, with a revised June decline of 0.1%. The six-month growth rate turned positive, suggesting moderate growth ahead, according to The Conference Board. However, consumer expectations remained a drag, potentially reducing spending due to higher living costs, particularly for lower- and middle-income households. Walmart's stock fell 8.7% due to similar concerns.

President Trump paused new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, potentially benefiting Magna International (MGA), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP). MGA reported strong Q2 earnings, STZ faces input cost pressures, and CP saw revenue growth. A deal could reduce tariffs, impacting these companies' costs and volumes.

U.S. stocks fell Thursday as Treasury yields rose after the Treasury Department announced increased buybacks of long-dated debt. Bitcoin surged 11.5% to $71,808.74. President Trump threatened economic action against Iran. Analysts note market tension between inflation concerns and rising borrowing costs. Fed Chair Warsh's upcoming speech is a key focus.

U.S. futures were little changed after the Treasury announced it would double bond buybacks, potentially lowering yields and easing pressure on equities. Oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions, with Brent crude up 2.5% and U.S. crude up 2.8%. Walmart's stock fell over 6% on a cautious outlook. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.68%. Asian and European markets showed mixed reactions.