NVIDIA’s CoWoS AI Chip Packaging Demand To Be Foreshadowed In 2027 By AMD Due To Agentic AI CPU Ramp, Says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley reports TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity allocation to AMD will rise in 2027, while NVIDIA's share drops. AMD's demand is expected to grow 308% to 530,000 wafers, driven by EPYC and MI400 chips, while NVIDIA's demand grows 57% to 1.2 million wafers. NVIDIA's Vera Rubin CPUs and AMD's EPYC Venice CPUs are expected to see significant shipments in 2027.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast provides fresh quantitative guidance on advanced packaging demand, a key input for valuation models of both AMD and NVIDIA.
Market read
The report reshapes expectations for AI server chip demand and could influence investor positioning in AMD, NVIDIA, and related semiconductor supply chain stocks.
What to watch
Potential supply constraints, geopolitical risks to Taiwan, and the impact of alternative packaging technologies not covered in the forecast.
Background
Morgan Stanley released a new research note projecting CoWoS packaging demand through 2027, focusing on AMD's AI-driven growth versus NVIDIA's relative share decline.
Ticker impact
Morgan Stanley forecasts AMD's CoWoS demand to jump 308% to 530,000 wafers in 2027, driven by EPYC Venice CPUs and AI GPU ramp.
Potential upside of 5‑10% over the next 12‑18 months as investors price in higher packaging demand.
The forecast is a fresh analyst estimate with large percentage growth, but actual execution depends on TSMC capacity and AI market adoption.
Morgan Stanley expects NVIDIA's share of TSMC CoWoS allocation to fall to 45.6% in 2027, with wafer demand reaching 1.2 million, a 57% increase year‑over‑year.
Limited impact, possibly a modest 2‑4% downside if market emphasizes share loss.
The absolute demand growth is strong, but the reduced share suggests competitive pressure from AMD.
Market effects
Highlights accelerating demand for advanced chip packaging in AI servers, benefiting the broader semiconductor equipment and foundry sector.
May boost Taiwan's TSMC capacity utilization and reinforce Taiwan's role in AI supply chains.
Signals shifting competitive dynamics between AMD and NVIDIA in the AI hardware market worldwide.
Counterpoint
If AI demand stalls or TSMC capacity expands faster than expected, AMD's projected share gain could be overstated, limiting upside.
Key entities
- Research FirmMorgan Stanley
Provider of the forecast data.
- FoundryTSMC
Allocates CoWoS capacity to AMD and NVIDIA.
