Amazon’s AWS Could Compound to $222 Billion by 2027. TD Cowen Says That’s 11% More Than Anyone Expects
TD Cowen projects Amazon's AWS revenue to reach $222 billion by 2027, 11% above consensus, driven by AI infrastructure spending. AWS grew 24% YoY in Q4 2025, with custom chips contributing over $10 billion annually. Amazon shares are down 2.47% weekly but up 14.19% YTD, trading below their 52-week high.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast could drive a re‑rating of Amazon's valuation and influence sector peers.
Market read
First‑report analyst upgrade with sizable revenue numbers for a mega‑cap cloud provider.
What to watch
Potential margin pressure from rising capex and free‑cash‑flow decline.
Background
TD Cowen's new AWS revenue projections contrast with consensus estimates.
Ticker impact
TD Cowen raised AWS revenue forecasts to $165 B for 2026 and $222 B for 2027, 11% above consensus.
Potential upside if AWS growth materializes; target price may rise toward $280.
Large‑cap cloud exposure, new capital‑expenditure plan, and proprietary silicon support the forecast.
Market effects
Boosts outlook for cloud and AI infrastructure sector.
Supports US tech market sentiment.
Sets a higher benchmark for global cloud providers.
Counterpoint
AWS growth may be constrained by capital‑intensive capex and slower enterprise adoption.
Key entities
- CompanyAmazon.com Inc.
US‑listed e‑commerce and cloud services giant.
- Research FirmTD Cowen
Equity research analyst raising AWS outlook.





