Deere Earnings: Has the Stock Outrun the Farm Cycle?

Deere & Company (DE) reported Q3 revenue growth of 18% in Construction & Forestry, its fastest-growing segment, while net income rose 7% to $1.38 billion. The company raised its 2026 net income outlook to $4.75B-$5B. However, farm-equipment sales fell 6% due to weak commodity prices. Construction demand, driven by AI data centers, offsets agricultural pressures, but tariffs and commodity prices remain risks.

Minnesota AG Keith Ellison reached a settlement with John Deere in July 2026, requiring the company to provide repair resources to farmers and independent shops for 10 years. The lawsuit, filed in January 2025, alleged John Deere's practices created an unlawful repair monopoly, increasing costs for farmers.

Barclays analysts maintained ratings on Nordex (NRDXF) and Deere (DE). Vladimir Sergievskiy kept a Hold rating on Nordex with a EUR35.00 price target, while Adam Seiden kept a Buy rating on Deere with a $640.00 target. Nordex's consensus is Moderate Buy with a $58.37 average target; Deere's consensus is Moderate Buy with a $647.81 average target, implying 6.0% upside.

Deere reported Q3 revenue of $11B (+6.2% YoY) and income of $1.4B (+7% YoY), beating estimates. Construction sales surged 18% to $3.6B, driven by AI infrastructure demand, while agriculture sales fell 6.4% due to lower farm incomes. Deere forecasts a 15-20% drop in ag equipment volumes this year but expects a 5-10% rise in construction equipment. Shares rose 6.94%.

Deere & Co. reported mixed Q3 results, with net sales down 6% in Production & Precision Ag but up 12% in Small Ag & Turf and 18% in Construction & Forestry. The company raised its full-year Financial Services income forecast to $870M. Deere expects full-year sales declines in Production & Precision Ag but growth in other segments. It also noted tariff-related refunds of $110M in Q3, with net tariff expense expected to be $750M for fiscal 2026.

Wall Street fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 703 points, as Walmart reported its slowest sales growth in six years, causing its shares to plunge 10%. John Deere shares rose 9% after raising its 2026 profit outlook, driven by strong construction sales. Starbucks is relocating corporate jobs to Nashville, investing $100 million in a new office.