How We Called the Nvidia Rally: performance measured in the open

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in Q2 revenue, up 106% YoY, with $89 billion from data-center business. CEO Jensen Huang forecast 70% data-center revenue growth for fiscal 2028. Demand is strong, but profit margins are declining due to memory shortages. The company faces risks from customer concentration and financing commitments, including $105 billion for an OpenAI project.

Nvidia reported a 85% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.62 billion, beating earnings estimates and providing strong forward guidance. Despite this, the broader chip sector, including the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), struggled to gain momentum, remaining below key moving averages. Nvidia's stock rose 8.7% but stayed below its May 14 all-time high of $236.54, potentially impacting broader market performance.

Nvidia may acquire AI company Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, expanding its open-source AI presence and protecting its AI chip dominance. SpaceX plans a $100 billion spaceport in Louisiana, aiming for 30 Starship flights daily. Google DeepMind faces talent losses to competitors like Anthropic, with a declining arrivals-to-departures ratio.

Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly acquiring Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, valued at 80x its annualized revenue of $150 million. Wedbush suggests the deal supports Nvidia's cloud ambitions, providing a use for its $36 billion in cloud contracts. Hugging Face's revenue has grown to $100 million, driven by demand for open AI models.

Nvidia (NVDA) has paused some revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud providers due to internal concerns about antitrust scrutiny. The company sought restrictions on chip rentals and could receive 50% of revenue above certain thresholds. Nvidia's commitments under its AI-cloud business model totaled $36 billion as of July 26, with $99 billion in equity investments and $25 billion in commitments. Second-quarter revenue doubled to $96.2 billion, with Data Center sales up 117% to $89 billion. Shares ro

Saxo's Charu Chanana notes Nvidia's future spending commitments, totaling $366 billion, increase its risk profile. Nvidia's Q2 earnings showed reduced free cash flow from $48.5 billion to $21.3 billion. The company's stock rose 8.74% following the earnings report.