Eli Lilly’s $100B incretin opportunity: Is more upside coming?

Eli Lilly (LLY) launched Foundayo, an oral treatment for weight management and type 2 diabetes, in the UK. The drug is available via private prescription at £100-£120/month, cheaper than its injectable Mounjaro. NHS availability depends on a NICE review with no set timeline. Foundayo competes with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill in the UK's private market.

Roche and Eli Lilly (LLY) received FDA clearance for Elecsys pTau217, a blood test to assess Alzheimer’s risk in patients aged 55+. The test runs on Roche’s existing analyzers and will be available via Labcorp and Quest Diagnostics. While it offers accessibility, it’s not a standalone diagnostic and lacks pricing details. Roche and Lilly aim to expand Alzheimer’s testing access.

Over 600,000 seniors enrolled in Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge program in two months, saving $216 million. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) supply drugs at $245/month. Jefferies estimates $1.5B-$1.8B annualized revenue for the program. KFF estimates 3.8M eligible beneficiaries. Enrollment may reach 25% soon, but adherence is uncertain.

Upper Macungie Township approved Eli Lilly's final land development plan for a $3.5 billion pharmaceutical plant. The 797,432-square-foot facility will create 2,000 construction jobs and involve final assembly of injectable medicines. The project will be completed in phases, with the first phase including an amenities building and visitor center.

Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, became the world's best-selling drug, contributing 65% of Q2 revenue. Clinical trials showed tirzepatide combined with Taltz improved psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis symptoms, expanding potential uses beyond diabetes and obesity. Eli Lilly is testing tirzepatide in other conditions, aiming to secure broader insurance coverage and mitigate competition risks.

In August 2026, the FDA approved Oveporexton (Takeda) for narcolepsy, a first-in-class drug restoring orexin signaling. It also cleared Roche's Elecsys Phospho-Tau test (with Eli Lilly) for Alzheimer's assessment and C2N Diagnostics' PrecivityAD2 for younger adults. REGENXBIO's Hunter syndrome therapy was put on hold, while Cellenkos' ALS therapy received Fast Track designation. Lantheus' Tauklarify, a tau-targeted imaging agent, was approved for AD evaluation.