Tesla Says This Time Is Different. Wall Street Is Split on Whether to Believe It

Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped 5% as investors assess the gap between its current EV business and Cathie Wood's long-term autonomous-driving thesis. Ark Invest recently bought $50M in TSLA shares. Wood's outlook hinges on robotaxis, with a projected market value of $8T-$10T and TSLA shares reaching $2,600 by 2030. Tesla began selling Cybercab fleets for robotaxi networks, tying revenue to ride activity. The stock trades at 12 times sales, a premium to other automakers.

Tesla's demand for ESS batteries is driving competition among South Korea's top battery makers. LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On are expanding production to supply Tesla's Megapack. LG's Michigan plant and Samsung's Indiana plant are key sites. SK On has contracts with U.S. firms. South Korea's ESS tenders also present growth opportunities, with Samsung SDI and SK On leading recent awards.

Tesla launched driverless Cybercabs in Austin, facing a safety inquiry and a 5% stock drop. Uber's London robotaxi service, with Wayve, retains human oversight. Uber also cut 3,300 jobs to fund its robotaxi shift. China's Baidu faced a nationwide permit freeze after a robotaxi malfunction, with a study showing income drops for local drivers.

NHTSA opened an audit into 1,000 Tesla Cybercabs in Austin to check if Tesla bypassed federal safety rules for the steering-wheel-free vehicle. Tesla began charging for Cybercab rides on September 3, 2026, the same day as the audit. NHTSA is also probing Tesla's Full Self-Driving software across 3.2 million vehicles. Tesla claims the Cybercab complies with applicable safety standards.

Tesla (TSLA) fell 5.92% after a lackluster Cybercab launch and regulatory scrutiny, while SpaceX (SPCX) dropped 1.2%. Both are top holdings in Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which declined 1.06%. Together, TSLA and SPCX make up 16% of ARKK's portfolio. TSLA trades at 155x forward earnings, and SPCX at 64x sales, despite significant losses.

Tesla (TSLA) reported that its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology had 4.1 times fewer collisions than manually driven Teslas in five European countries, based on 100 million km of driving data. The company is lobbying for EU-wide approval, with some countries already granting provisional approval. Tesla's Q2 revenue reached $28.2 billion, up 26% YoY, and FSD users grew to 1.48 million. However, operating income fell 57%, and regulatory and competitive challenges remain.