Could AstraZeneca (AZN)’s Stronger Growth Make it a Better Bet than Amgen (AMGN)?

HSBC adjusted ratings for biopharma stocks, citing high multiples and the need for stock-specific catalysts. Novartis was upgraded to Hold with a target price of 110 CHF, while Amgen was downgraded to Hold with a target of $425. AbbVie and Bayer were kept as Buy with raised targets. The changes reflect expectations for upcoming clinical trials and legal outcomes.

Novartis (NVS) shares fell 13% after two failed clinical trials, one for a muscle loss disease drug and another for a cholesterol-targeting drug. Amgen (AMGN) shares dropped 9%, impacting the Dow, as it develops a similar cholesterol drug. Novartis expects 5-6% annual sales growth through 2030. Both companies' stocks were affected by the trial results.

AstraZeneca's experimental drug tozorakimab reduced COPD flare-ups by 29-34% in late-stage trials, with patients experiencing fewer exacerbations than placebo. The drug targets interleukin-33 and showed effectiveness regardless of smoking status or disease severity. The data is under FDA review for approval. Separately, high-dose flu vaccines reduced hospitalizations in older lung-disease patients, and severe asthma was linked to brain structure changes.

Amgen's Imdelltra, in combination with AstraZeneca's Imfinzi, met all primary goals in a late-stage lung-cancer trial, showing improved survival and response rates. The study involved 563 patients, with no new safety concerns reported. Amgen's stock traded at $391.65, with investors awaiting survival data for a larger commercial assessment.

AstraZeneca's stock fell 1.3% to $158 despite positive Phase 3 results for its COPD treatment, tozorakimab, which showed a 34% reduction in flare-ups in trials. The FDA granted priority review, with a decision expected in Q1 2027. The company reported no new safety concerns across 2,306 patients.

Novartis' late-stage trial for a cholesterol drug failed to prevent heart problems, despite lowering lp(a) levels, impacting Novartis and rivals like Amgen. Agco's CEO suggested potential year-round ethanol requirements, while PNC Financial's CIO warned of risks from Fed rate hikes. Diesel prices neared $6/gallon, and AI advancements were highlighted.