ASML CEO Warns AI Chip Crunch Is Far From Over — And Elon Musk's Terafab, Starlink Could Make It Worse

ASML, Intel (INTC), TSMC (TSM), and Samsung (005930.KS) collaborate to adopt High-NA EUV, a next-gen lithography tech. Samsung aims to use it in DRAM by 2028, TSMC by 2030. Intel is already using it. They also plan to jointly develop 12-inch photomasks. This follows China's advancements in DUV tech, which impacted ASML's share price.

ASML Holding NV (ASML) stock is set for a second week of gains after the company raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43-45B ($49-51B), up from €36-40B. The upgrade is driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductor equipment, particularly for AI applications. CEO Christophe Fouquet cited improved production capabilities and long-term agreements with customers. ASML stock is up 69% year-to-date, with retail investors showing strong bullish sentiment.

ASML plans to develop new chip tools for larger AI processors, aiming to produce chips as large as today's data centre processors. The company's next-generation 'High NA' EUV tools will use larger masks, with a pilot line expected by 2031 and high-volume production by 2033. ASML's CTO Marco Pieters expects a 40% productivity increase. Key customers like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are involved.

Intel (INTC) shares rose 10% after announcing a 10% CPU price increase and processing over 1 million wafers with ASML's (ASML) High-NA EUV equipment. Intel's Q2 earnings beat estimates, with EPS at $0.42 vs. $0.21 expected. Analysts' price targets range up to $200, reflecting optimism about Intel's turnaround and manufacturing progress.

ASML is expanding High-NA EUV collaborations with Samsung and Intel as AI-driven chip demand increases. Intel has already integrated High-NA into production, while Samsung plans to use the technology in DRAM manufacturing by 2028. ASML reports technical progress, but adoption timing varies by customer.

ASML, a Dutch company, is the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines essential for advanced chip manufacturing. It dominates the market with decades of R&D and a recurring revenue model. Revenue grew from €14bn in 2020 to €32.7bn in 2025, with net profit of €9.6bn. ASML targets €43bn-€45bn in revenue for 2026, with gross margins of 54-56%. Risks include customer concentration, cyclicality, and geopolitical restrictions.