Crypto Market Prediction This Week: Top Events to Watch—Bullish or Bearish?

Polymarket bettors give Bitcoin a 51% chance of dropping to $75,000 by September's end, and a 70% chance of rebounding to $80,000. Bitcoin traded near $77,000, down from its October 2023 high. The Fed's rate hike to 3.75%-4% pressured prices, as higher rates typically weigh on Bitcoin. Institutional demand remains, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $987 million in inflows early September.

CryptoQuant reported that 1.6 billion XRP, worth $1.6B, were transferred to Binance by large holders, the highest in six months. While this increases tradable supply, it does not necessarily indicate selling intent. XRP's market cap is $84.04B, with a 57% YTD decline.

Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $78,309 on Friday, marking its third straight day of gains, driven by a tech-fueled rally. The cryptocurrency had earlier hit a near four-week low after the U.S. Senate rejected a crypto-friendly bill. JPMorgan analysts suggest Bitcoin could outperform gold if short positions in Bitcoin ETFs are unwound.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 33% from its July low of $57,800, but remains 40% below its all-time high. The current bear market cycle has lasted 290 days, the fourth-longest since 2014. Institutional demand has improved, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $3.52 billion in net inflows in August. However, regulatory uncertainty and Fed rate hikes may weigh on BTC. On-chain data shows a mixed picture, with bullish long-term indicators but cooling short-term demand.

The Senate voted down the Clarity Act, delaying federal crypto market-structure rules. XRP, Ethereum, and Solana prices fell post-vote. Regulators may advance policies to fill the gap, but durability is uncertain. Investors await clarity for institutional capital inflow.

Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $77,560.9 as crypto markets recovered from earlier losses, driven by SEC's tokenized stock exemption and broader risk-on sentiment. Ether and altcoins like Solana and Cardano also gained. The SEC's move helped markets overlook the failure of the Clarity Act in Congress.