Devon Funds Morning Note
US equities rebounded on Friday despite higher-than-expected core CPI data, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%. Investors focused on AI-related tech stocks, reducing the impact of cyclicals. Treasury yields rose, and markets priced in an 85-88% chance of a Fed rate hike. Oil prices fell 2.5%. NZX 50 dropped 1.0%, led by declines in large-cap names. Australian equities fell 3.7% in September, with materials and tech sectors under pressure.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The CPI release nudges market expectations toward a higher probability of a Fed rate hike, influencing bond yields and equity sector rotation.
Market read
Macro data drives short‑term trading decisions across equities, fixed income, and commodities, with particular focus on rate‑sensitive assets.
What to watch
Potential supply‑side shocks from Middle‑East tensions and upcoming commodity data could quickly shift sentiment.
Background
The note summarizes US CPI data, Treasury yields, oil price movements, and regional equity performance in NZ and Australia.
Market effects
Technology and AI‑related stocks benefit from resilient equity demand; cyclical and rate‑sensitive sectors lag.
US equity rally offsets weakness in NZ and Australian markets, highlighting divergent regional rate‑inflation dynamics.
Core CPI data and oil price pullback shape global risk appetite and Fed rate‑path expectations.
Counterpoint
If inflation proves stickier than implied, the market may over‑price resilience, leading to a sharper correction.
Key entities
- RegulatorFederal Reserve
Central bank whose policy outlook is shaped by the CPI data.
- GovernmentU.S. Treasury
Issuer of the yields referenced in the bond market commentary.


