Norfolk Southern sees fuel prices weighing on third quarter despite freight share gains

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster supports the $85B merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, creating a transcontinental freight hauler. The deal, announced in July 2025, aims to streamline deliveries and expand rail infrastructure. The Surface Transportation Board is reviewing the merger, with several parties requesting to participate.

Norfolk Southern's 2023 train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, remains unresolved. A federal judge delayed approval of a $310M consent decree due to ongoing soil contamination concerns. Residents report health issues, and new evidence suggests the venting of chemicals was unnecessary. Norfolk Southern disputes these claims, citing safety as their priority.

Stephens raised its price target on Norfolk Southern to $377 from $354, maintaining an Equalweight rating. The stock is currently trading at $327.91, down 0.47% on the day and 1.16% over the past year, but up 13.98% year-to-date. The adjustment reflects changes in valuation and earnings revisions.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern submitted a merger application to the STB, claiming it meets regulatory thresholds and benefits the public. The companies argue the merger will improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and create jobs. The STB has set a procedural schedule for review. Both CEOs emphasized the merger's benefits for customers, employees, and the environment. The application includes customer protections and competition commitments.

Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) defended their proposed merger, stating it meets Surface Transportation Board (STB) requirements and benefits customers, employees, and the economy. They urged regulators to proceed with a full review, citing extensive evidence and potential savings. The STB's review process is ongoing, with a decision expected in late 2027.

Union Pacific collected $91.1 million more in fuel surcharges than it paid for fuel in Q2, boosting profits. The company is seeking regulatory approval for an $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, aiming for 42% market share. Critics argue the merger could reduce competition and increase shipping costs. Union Pacific's fuel surcharge revenue exceeded costs by $56.4 million in the first half of 2026, while rivals like BNSF faced higher fuel costs.