Z Looks 62.3% Undervalued on GF Value™ as Shares Slide Amid Fed

A federal judge denied Zillow's injunction against the Chicago MLS (MRED) and Compass, allowing private listing networks to operate. The ruling may enable MLSes to expand nationally with private networks, though Zillow argues these networks harm transparency and market access. The case is now in arbitration, with Congress also scrutinizing the practices.

Zillow Group's shares (Z, ZG) are near 52-week lows around $30, amid challenging housing conditions due to rising mortgage rates. Q2 revenue grew 18% to $772M, with strong performance in rentals and mortgage segments. Management forecasts 2026 revenue of $2.92B-$2.96B and adjusted EBITDA of $730M-$760M. Despite a more appealing valuation, near-term upside may be limited by elevated mortgage rates.

Zillow (Z) faces legal setback as a court denies its injunction request against MRED, risking loss of Chicago listings. Stock fell 2% to $31.96. GF Value™ estimates Zillow is 59.5% undervalued at $31.96 vs. $78.88 intrinsic value. Insiders sold $15.1M shares over 12 months. GF Score™ is 64/100, with strong financial health but weak profitability.

Zillow is facing a shareholder lawsuit alleging antitrust risks and misleading statements regarding its deal with Redfin. The complaint claims executives sold $81M in stock before the FTC lawsuit and stock price drop. The plaintiff seeks damages and governance changes. Zillow denies wrongdoing, calling the deal pro-competitive.

Zillow faces antitrust scrutiny over agreements with Redfin and practices like conditioning agent referrals on using its lending service. The FTC settled with Zillow and states over claims of anticompetitive agreements, while a class-action lawsuit by real estate agents is ongoing. Compass previously sued but dismissed its case after Zillow changed its listing policy. The FTC's case focused on two agreements between Zillow and Redfin, including a $100 million partnership and an exclusive content

The FTC and five states filed a settlement requiring Zillow and Redfin to unwind a $100M deal where Zillow paid Redfin to exit the multifamily rental marketplace. The agreement, deemed anticompetitive, involved Redfin transferring customers and employees to Zillow and agreeing not to compete for up to nine years. The settlement mandates Redfin to rebuild its marketplace and imposes restrictions on Zillow to facilitate competition.