The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Forecasts

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) shares fell 5.01% amid concerns over slowing ad spend and valuation pressure. The company announced a 15% workforce reduction, which may result in $39–$51M in severance costs. TTD is also being removed from the S&P 500 and Bloomberg 500 Indexes, which could trigger passive fund selling. Despite solid financials, analysts remain neutral, with a consensus price target of $13.31.

Guggenheim raised its price target for The Trade Desk (TTD) to $13.00 from $12.00, citing cost cuts and improved 2027 EBITDA estimates. The stock is down 67% year-over-year. Guggenheim expects revenue decline in early 2027 but growth later. TTD announced a 15% workforce reduction for $150M in annual savings. Other analysts have mixed reactions to the changes.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) will add Bloom Energy (BE), Illumina (ILMN), and another company, while removing Molson Coors (TAP), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Builders FirstSource (BLDR). BE's product revenue surged 215% due to AI demand, and ILMN raised EPS guidance. The changes have minimal impact on VOO's returns, as the fund is heavily concentrated in megacap stocks.

The Trade Desk (TTD) and Amazon (AMZN) are poised to benefit from digital advertising growth, with a 13.2% CAGR expected through 2035. TTD reported 3% Q2 revenue growth, citing macroeconomic pressures and competition. AMZN's advertising revenue is a key growth driver. TTD's Q3 guidance is $650M revenue and $160M adjusted EBITDA. Both companies are exposed to CTV and retail media trends.

Trade Desk granted CEO Jeff Green a performance-based stock option for up to 7,000,000 Class A shares, exercisable at $14.97 if stock-price targets are met. The option has a ten-year term and vests in tranches tied to average price targets from $18.00 to $105.00, subject to continued service and other conditions. The grant was approved by the Compensation Committee and Board, with Green recused from voting.

AppLovin (APP) reported higher revenue growth than The Trade Desk (TTD) over the last eight quarters, with a 78% operating margin for Q2 2026. The Trade Desk, with a 14% operating margin, announced restructuring. AppLovin projects Q3 2026 revenue of $2.1B, while The Trade Desk expects $650M, down from $739M in Q3 2025.