Baird Adjusts Price Target on Coinbase Global to $205 From $130, Maintains Neutral Rating

Coinbase Global received temporary SEC approval to trade tokenized US equities and reported over $1b in decentralized exchange volume for these stocks on its Base network. The company aims to diversify revenue beyond crypto trading, with tokenized equities and DeFi Earn as new growth areas. Analysts project varying revenue and earnings forecasts, with risks including regulatory scrutiny and trading fee pressure.

The SEC approved a temporary framework for trading tokenized US equities, potentially benefiting Coinbase (COIN). Coinbase already offers tokenized stocks internationally and aims to expand this to the US. Baird reiterated a Neutral rating on COIN with a $130 price target, citing the regulatory change. Coinbase must meet SEC conditions and demonstrate domestic demand to generate revenue from this opportunity.

SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda stated the agency dropped crypto cases in early 2025 to avoid credibility issues in court, as it planned a policy shift. Cases against Kraken, Ripple Labs, and Coinbase were dismissed, with critics suggesting political motivations. The SEC now has two commissioners, with no nominations for replacements announced.

Coinbase is preparing for a post-quantum era of Bitcoin security, aiming to protect $250B in assets. The exchange is developing a fallback architecture using Hardware Security Modules (HSMs) to adapt to various signing schemes. According to Coinbase's head of cryptography, this approach ensures compatibility with different blockchain networks. The move comes amid concerns about quantum computing threats, with experts warning of potential risks to digital assets by 2029.

Bitcoin fell to $84.3K after strong U.S. business activity data raised expectations of Fed rate hikes. The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite rose to 58.4 in September, beating consensus. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 5.11%, and traders now see a 66.4% chance of a 25-bp rate hike in October. Ethereum and XRP also declined.

Bitcoin rose 4.9% to $84,371, extending its recovery as a US SEC decision on tokenised equities supported crypto markets. The SEC granted a temporary exemption for trading tokenised US equities on blockchain platforms. Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Robinhood shares advanced. Ethereum, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies also gained.