U.S. VEHICLE SALES UNLIKELY TO REGAIN PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS THIS DECADE, MOBILITY GLOBAL FORECAST SHOWS
Mobility Global forecasts U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach 16.1M in 2026 and 16.4M by 2030, below pre-pandemic levels of 17M annually. Affordability is cited as the main challenge. The company expects BEV assembly to surpass 1M units in 2027 and FHEV assembly to reach 3M units, with nearly a third of North American light vehicle assembly being FHEV by 2030. Mobility Global also highlights regionalization trends in the auto industry.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The new forecast signals a structural shift in U.S. vehicle demand, emphasizing affordability constraints and a slower return to pre‑pandemic volumes.
Market read
The outlook may prompt investors to reassess earnings expectations for major U.S. automakers and related supply‑chain participants.
What to watch
Potential policy incentives, new financing options, or a rapid shift to electric vehicles could mitigate the projected volume decline.
Background
Mobility Global, a data and analytics provider for the automotive industry, separated from S&P Global in 2025 and now offers its FAST forecasting tool.
Ticker impact
Mobility Global (NYSE: MBGL) released its 2026-2030 U.S. light‑vehicle sales forecast, projecting sales well below pre‑pandemic levels.
likely pressure on major auto manufacturers as investors digest lower volume expectations; MBGL may benefit modestly from heightened data demand.
The forecast is a primary disclosure from the data‑provider; its impact on auto stocks is indirect but material, whereas MBGL's own stock may see modest upside from the visibility of its product.
Market effects
U.S. automotive sector faces a downward sales outlook, potentially prompting cost‑cutting and inventory adjustments.
North American auto manufacturers may see share price pressure; suppliers with exposure to BEV programs could be affected.
The forecast adds to broader concerns about consumer affordability and could influence global auto supply‑chain planning.
Counterpoint
If BEV adoption accelerates faster than forecast, the sales dip could be overstated, supporting a rally in EV‑focused stocks.
Key entities
- companyMobility Global, Inc.
Provider of automotive data and forecasting, listed on NYSE as MBGL.
- personPeter Nagle
Associate Director for Americas Demand Forecasting at Mobility Global.
