Samsung Heads Into Q3 Earnings With 5 Open Questions About Its Chip Boom

Goldman Sachs warns of potential volatility in Samsung Electronics (005930) on Oct. 8 due to overlapping events, including ETF rebalancing, options expiration, and the end of a share buyback. The bank expects mechanical selling pressure and reduced demand-supply support. Foreign investors have been net sellers of the stock. Goldman cut its Q3 operating profit forecast for Samsung by 5% to 106 trillion won, citing a stronger won.

AMD Chair Lisa Su met with Samsung Electronics' Jun Young-hyun to discuss expanded cooperation in AI semiconductors, including HBM supply and foundry orders. Su hinted at long-term memory supply agreements. Samsung's foundry business could benefit from additional AMD orders, according to industry sources.

Samsung Electronics is expected to report third-quarter sales of 200.6416 trillion won and operating profit of 106.641 trillion won, up 776.5% year-over-year. Analysts' forecasts vary, with some predicting higher profits due to memory price increases, while others lower forecasts due to exchange rate concerns. The semiconductor division is expected to drive profits, while the smartphone and home appliance division may see losses.

South Korean retail investors lost an estimated 2.3 trillion won (US$1.7 billion) on leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix between May 27 and August 14, according to data from the Financial Supervisory Service. Losses occurred across 10 major brokerages, including Mirae Asset Securities and Samsung Securities. Regulators introduced cooling measures in July to curb volatility and speculation.

Samsung Electronics is expected to report over 100 trillion won ($73.5B) in Q3 operating profit, a first, despite downward revisions due to currency and cost pressures. Analysts forecast 99.9-115 trillion won, with the semiconductor division driving growth. The DX division is expected to post a loss. Samsung shares fell 1.45%. Investors focus on HBM earnings and 2024 pricing. ETF rebalancing may add volatility.

Goldman Sachs warns Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) may face volatility on October 8 due to earnings, ETF rebalancing, and options expiry. Analyst Heather Oh estimates 3Q26 operating profit at W106 trillion, down 5% from prior estimates due to Korean won strength. Samsung's buyback program ends, removing a buying support. Foreign investors sold $2.6 billion worth of shares ahead of the event.