Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Stock Forecasts

Vice President JD Vance announced 760,000 ACA enrollees were dropped due to fraud, with 400,000 under review. Insurers like Centene, Molina, Elevance, and UnitedHealth saw stock declines. Experts warn of squeezed margins in 2026-2027 due to a less healthy risk pool. Premium rates for 2027 are locked, and insurers may push for higher 2028 rates. Brokers, who drive 75% of sign-ups, face new restrictions and potential reputational damage.

A crackdown on Obamacare by the Trump administration may raise costs for US consumers and insurers. 760,000 enrollees were removed for suspected fraud, with 400,000 under review. This could impact insurers like UnitedHealth and Centene, as a sicker mix of patients may reduce profits. Shares of health insurers fell following the announcement.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) will end its traditional Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans by December 31, 2026, affecting about 80,000 members. The company announced this decision in February 2026, but members were notified in October. Members must choose a new plan by December 7, 2026, to avoid losing coverage and potential penalties. Molina will retain its dual-eligible Medicare business, which generated $5 billion in 2025.

Progyny (PGNY) and other health insurers reported Q2 earnings, with revenues beating estimates by 2.8% but guidance below expectations. PGNY's revenue grew 5.3% YoY, missing EBITDA guidance. CVS Health (CVS) reported 7.3% YoY revenue growth, beating estimates. Molina Healthcare (MOH) saw a 4.8% YoY revenue decline. Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) grew 31.6% YoY, while Clover Health (CLOV) saw 55.6% YoY growth. Stocks have declined since earnings, except CLOV, which rose 4.3%.

Centene (CNC) and Oscar Health (OSCR) shares rose 6% and 12% respectively after Baird reported favorable risk adjustment results. Baird noted the outcomes support Centene's Q4 commentary and align with Oscar's June investor conference remarks. Molina (MOH) shares also rose 2% despite a minor negative impact. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released final 2025 risk adjustment data on June 30, affecting insurers' earnings.

CVS Health (CVS) reported $106.1B revenue, up 7.3% YoY, beating estimates. UnitedHealth (UNH) reported $112B revenue, flat YoY, also beating estimates. Progyny (PGNY) reported $350.5M revenue, up 5.3% YoY, missing guidance. Molina Healthcare (MOH) reported $10.87B revenue, down 4.8% YoY, missing guidance. All stocks have declined since earnings.