Shell plc Updates Production Guidance for the Third Quarter 2026

Shell anticipates record refining margins of $42 per barrel for Q3, up from $24 in Q2, due to Middle East conflict-driven fuel supply disruptions. The oil major also raised its integrated gas production forecast and completed a $16.4B acquisition of ARC Resources. Shell's shares rose 0.3% amid broader market declines in European energy stocks.

Shell reported record refining margins of $42/barrel in Q3, up from $24 in Q2, due to supply disruptions. Refining utilization was 97%. Shares rose 1% on Oct 7. Full earnings are due Oct 29.

Shell plc anticipates a ~$2.5B cash outflow in Q3 2026 due to emissions certificate payments under the German BEHG. The company also expects lower marketing earnings, exploration well write-offs of ~$0.3B, and impacts on net debt from the ARC acquisition. Q3 results are set to be published on 29 October 2026.

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) raised its Q3 2026 outlook due to higher fuel demand and elevated crude oil prices. Brent crude averaged $104/barrel. Shell increased its Integrated Gas production forecast to 740,000–780,000 boe/d and Upstream production to 1.735–1.835 million boe/d. Q3 refining margin is projected at $42/barrel. Analysts expect Q3 EPS of $1.40 and revenue of $87.84 billion. Shell trades at a P/E of 10.8x.

Shell reported a 75% increase in refining margins to $42 per barrel in Q3, a record high. The surge is attributed to supply disruptions from Middle East and Ukraine wars. Shell's shares rose 0.6% in London. Kathleen Brooks of XTB noted unprecedented widening of refining spreads. (Shell)

Shell raised its integrated gas production forecast to 740,000–780,000 barrels per day, up from 570,000–630,000. It expects refining margins to reach $42 per barrel. Shell completed the ARC acquisition, adding 370,000 barrels per day. Operating cash flow is expected to decline by $2.5 billion. Results are due October 29.