Another Fed Rate Hike Might Be Due By Year End, Fed Minutes Show

Japanese shares fell for a second day, with Nikkei 225 down 1.1% and Topix down 1.3%, following Wall Street's selloff. US Fed minutes indicated support for further rate hikes. Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions. Notable movers: Advantest (-1.12%), SoftBank Group (-3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (-1.8%), and Kioxia Holdings (+2.9%).

Market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell to 19.4% from 50.9% in a week. Traders now expect a 70% chance of a hike by December. Fed officials' comments and a weaker-than-expected jobs report contributed to the shift. SPY rose 0.56% while TLT fell 0.82% over the week.

JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank upgraded Brazilian stocks to overweight after Flávio Bolsonaro led in Brazil's election. The Bovespa index rose 7.7% and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gained 12.5% on Monday. Analysts cite potential fiscal policy changes and a stronger real. EWZ is up 35% year-to-date. Banco Bradesco was also upgraded by JPMorgan.

U.S. private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs weekly for the four weeks ending September 19, according to ADP's data. This marks the fifth consecutive week of hiring acceleration. ADP processes payroll for over 1.1 million clients and releases weekly employment data.

U.S. private employers added 23,750 jobs weekly in September 2026, according to ADP's preliminary NER Pulse report. This marks the fifth week of accelerated hiring. The data is seasonally adjusted and subject to change. ADP, a global HR and payroll solutions provider, produces the report in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warns that the Middle East conflict has made global energy markets more fragile, with shrinking oil and fuel supply buffers. Brent crude futures trade around $100/barrel, but physical oil in Asia is near $150/barrel. Refined fuel markets are tight, driving up gasoline and diesel prices. The G7 agreed to release 100M barrels from reserves. Wirth cautioned against export bans, saying they could worsen market pressures.