Health Canada reviewing new mRNA flu vaccine that could prevent more hospitalisations

Moderna (MRNA) stock has surged 621% in the past year, despite declining sales and heavy reliance on COVID vaccines. The company's potential growth hinges on intismeran autogene, a cancer therapy in development with Merck, which has shown promise in a Phase 3 trial. Moderna is preparing for a potential launch, but the therapy is not yet on sale. The company's revenue was $2.2 billion in the last year, with COVID vaccines making up 93% of sales.

Moderna's stock rose 14% to a 52-week high of nearly $225, driven by its return to the Nasdaq-100 and news of a government-backed cancer vaccine initiative. The company reported a $782 million net loss in Q2, raising concerns about its financial health. Upcoming events, including detailed Phase 3 melanoma data and Q3 earnings, are critical for the stock's future trajectory. Analysts have mixed price targets, ranging from $95 to $200.

Merck and Moderna's personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine, intismeran autogene, met phase 3 trial endpoints. Production challenges include scaling tiny batches and cost. Moderna's facility began clinical supply in 2025, targeting 6-8 weeks from biopsy to dose. Provenge's high manufacturing cost led to bankruptcy, serving as a cautionary tale. Standalone personalized vaccines show mixed results, with a recent trial halted due to survival imbalance.

Moderna (MRNA) rose to a 4-year high after announcing an NIH partnership for cancer vaccines, with a $225 peak. Humana (HUM) reached a 2-year high after improving Medicare Advantage ratings to 95%. Lumentum (LITE) hit a record high due to strong AI infrastructure demand. MRNA +14%, HUM +11%, LITE +5%.

Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, mFlusiva, approved in the U.S. and under Health Canada review, is 27% more effective than traditional vaccines. It offers faster production and no mutation risk. Health Canada's decision expected this year, with provincial rollout varying. Vaccine uptake and misinformation remain challenges.

Moderna shares rose 14% to their highest level since January 2022 after The New York Times reported a planned national cancer research initiative. The NIH-led program, launching in December, aims to accelerate cancer treatment research, targeting pancreatic, liver, colorectal cancers, and pediatric tumors. Moderna, along with Merck, is developing mRNA-based cancer treatments, with positive trial results reported in August.