European Airfares Could Rise Up to 20% Next Year, Ryanair CEO Warns

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary anticipates a 20% rise in European airfares over the next year due to higher oil prices from Middle East conflict. Ryanair, 85% unhedged against fuel price increases, may face pressure on profit margins. The airline plans to reduce operations in France and Belgium due to higher taxes. Ryanair shares dropped 2.2% in Dublin trading, down about 25% year-to-date. The company expects its first Boeing 737 Max 10 aircraft in January.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary predicts European air fares could rise 10-20% in 2027 due to higher jet fuel costs from the Middle East conflict, according to a news conference. Ryanair is 85% unhedged for 2027, with fuel costs at 15% hedged at $85/barrel, while spot rates are around $170/barrel. EasyJet reported a £105m annual rise in fuel costs and has cut 700,000 seats from its winter schedule.

Ryanair is being offered a £67m grant to establish an engine maintenance facility in Northern Ireland, potentially creating 600 jobs. The subsidy includes £30m from the NI Enhanced Investment Zone, £10m from the Department for the Economy, and £27m from the UK government. Ryanair plans to bring engine maintenance in-house at two facilities starting in 2029, with Northern Ireland competing against Spain and Poland for one location.

The European Court of Justice ruled that 'grandfathered slots' for airlines are not absolute and can be restricted in cases of insufficient capacity. This affects airlines like Ryanair and Aer Lingus operating flights between Dublin and Spain. The ruling creates uncertainty about future flight frequencies, despite no immediate impact on current bookings. Ryanair seeks to remove passenger limits, while the Irish government plans to review capacity by 2026.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary expressed optimism that the Boeing 737 MAX 10 will receive US certification by the end of October, allowing the airline to take delivery of 16 planes in early 2027. The US FAA previously delayed certification due to a software issue, which Boeing is working to resolve.

Ryanair renewed calls to abolish Dublin International's 32 million passenger-per-year cap after a CJEU ruling. The airline argues the cap is outdated, as Dublin handled over 32 million passengers in 2024 and expects 36 million in 2026. Ryanair claims the cap restricts route development and competition, and warns of potential impacts on Ireland's international connectivity. The Irish government has not yet acted on legislation passed in 2026 to remove the cap.