Argentina could overtake Guyana in South American oil race
Argentina may surpass Guyana as South America's third-largest oil producer by 2028, driven by Chevron's $13.8B investment in Vaca Muerta. Chevron aims to triple production at El Trapial by 2029, with Argentina's output expected to reach 910,000 barrels per day by 2026, up 42% from 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The investment underscores confidence in Argentine shale despite macro risks, likely lifting CVX valuation.
Market read
First report of a large, long‑term capital program in Argentina; material for CVX investors and energy sector.
What to watch
Potential cost overruns and logistical challenges in remote Vaca Muerta may delay expected production gains.
Background
Chevron is expanding its Vaca Muerta footprint, aiming to triple output at El Trapial by 2029, with a $13.8 billion spend over 30 years.
Ticker impact
Chevron disclosed a $13.8 billion, 30‑year investment plan for the El Trapial block in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale.
likely upward pressure as investors price in future production growth
A multi‑billion‑dollar capital commitment is material and new, suggesting higher future cash flow and could lift CVX shares.
Market effects
Boosts exposure to Argentine shale assets and may encourage other majors to increase Vaca Muerta activity.
Supports Argentine energy sector sentiment and could attract further foreign investment.
Adds to global oil supply growth outlook, modestly influencing broader energy markets.
Counterpoint
High capital outlay amid Argentina's economic volatility could strain cash flow if policy reverses.
Key entities
- CompanyChevron
U.S. integrated oil major announcing the investment plan.


