Piraeus 9M 2026 slides: Q3 acceleration drives 2027 target revision

KBW upgraded Alpha Bank to Market Perform, noting strong growth but reservations about valuation. It prefers National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, and Bank of Cyprus for higher interest rate sensitivity and shareholder returns. Greek banks trade at a 17% discount to Spanish peers, suggesting potential revaluation. Alpha Bank targets a 14.5% RoTE by 2028, while Piraeus and Eurobank show strong operational trends.

John Paulson sold 71 million shares of Piraeus Bank, reducing his stake from 14.1% to 8.4%. The shares were sold at €9.51 each, totaling €332.8 million. Piraeus Bank's stock has risen 45% year-to-date, driven by improved financial results. Paulson remains the largest shareholder and expressed continued confidence in the bank's future.

Piraeus Bank reported a 39% year-over-year increase in service revenue to €679 million for the first nine months. Loans grew to €39.6 billion, while client deposits rose 9% to €69.2 billion. Core operating profit reached €930 million, up 14% year-over-year, with a 9% increase in net profit to €893 million. The bank's NPE ratio improved to 2.0%, and its CET1 ratio stood at 12.9%.

JP Morgan sees Greek banks entering a growth phase, forecasting 12% EPS CAGR for 2025-2028. It prefers Eurobank and Piraeus Bank, estimating 30% and 28% upside, respectively. Greek banks trade at a 10% discount to peers despite higher earnings growth. JP Morgan raised earnings estimates for 2026-2028, citing higher net interest income and fee revenues.

Piraeus Bank's subsidiary, Ethniki Insurance, priced its first €200mn subordinated bond issuance, comprising €100mn Tier 2 bonds at 5.25% and €100mn RT1 perpetual bonds at 6.875%. The offering was 3.0x oversubscribed, with strong international investor demand. The bonds will list on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. Ethniki Insurance's Solvency II ratio stands at 190% post-issuance, according to the company.

Piraeus Bank reported H1 2026 net profits of EUR 617 million, with tangible equity at EUR 7.27 billion. The bank plans a EUR 494 million cash dividend from 2025 profits, payable Aug. 7, 2026. Loans rose to EUR 39 billion, deposits to EUR 68.4 billion, and deposits and AUM increased. Piraeus said it is upgrading 2026 targets, including net interest income to EUR 2.0 billion and CET1 above 13%.