FND Q3 deep dive: cautious outlook as macro headwinds weigh on store expansion and demand

Floor & Decor reported Q3 revenue of $1.21B, in line with estimates, and EPS of $0.61, beating estimates. The company lowered full-year revenue guidance to $4.8B but raised EPS guidance to $2.24. CEO Brad Paulsen addressed analyst questions on pricing, margins, and growth strategies. The company operates 282 locations, with same-store sales down 1.4% year-over-year.

Analysts from J.P. Morgan provided updates on three consumer cyclical companies. Christopher Horvers maintained a Hold rating on Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) with a $57 target. Tomohiko Sano kept a Buy rating on Service International (SCI) with a $95 target. Daniel Politzer maintained a Hold rating on Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) with a $38 target. Analyst consensus and recent price changes were also noted for each company.

Floor & Decor (FND) reported Q3 2026 earnings with a 3% increase in total sales to $1.21 billion. EPS grew 11%, excluding benefits, driven by expense management and operational execution. Comparable store sales declined 1.4%, but improved sequentially. Pro sales grew 9% in September, with Pro penetration increasing to 55%. The company repurchased $157 million in stock under a $400 million authorization.

Floor & Decor reported Q3 sales declines in laminate and vinyl flooring, with sequential improvement. Gross profit rose 3.8% to $19.4M, and margins expanded 30 bps. The company expects $8M in tariff refunds in Q4. It repurchased 1.8M shares for $91.4M and plans to open 20 stores in 2026, moderating to 10-15 in 2027. Management anticipates continued demand pressure due to high mortgage rates and weak home sales. FY2026 sales are projected at $4.765B-$4.835B, with adjusted EPS of $1.88-$1.98.

Telsey Advisory Group downgraded Floor & Decor Hldgs to Market Perform from Outperform, lowering its price target to $50 from $68. The new target is near the stock's recent close of $50.34. Recent analyst price targets for the company range from $45 to $55.

Telsey downgraded Floor & Decor (FND) to Market Perform, lowering its price target to $50.00 from $68.00, citing housing market pressures and consumer hesitation. The firm noted declining home sales and reduced its 2027 EPS estimate to $2.00. Floor & Decor reported Q3 2026 earnings of $0.61 per share, exceeding expectations, but faces operating margin headwinds.