Oil Fund Falls 7.08% as US-Iran Talks Ease War Premium | Oil, Nov 2

YPF, an Argentine oil company, is close to finalizing a US$51B gas project, needing one last contract. The project, involving Eni and XRG, aims to export LNG starting 2031. YPF seeks a US$6B financing proposal from the US Export-Import Bank. The final investment decision is targeted for late November 2026.

YPF and Pampa, Argentina's largest energy companies, fell 7.1% and 5.4% respectively in New York trading due to a drop in crude oil prices, triggered by U.S. political developments. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,689. The peso strengthened slightly, indicating no broader confidence crisis. Oil prices and the peso's stability remain key variables to watch.

YPF, Argentina's state-owned oil company, applied for US$8.7B shale oil project in Vaca Muerta under Argentina's RIGI incentive regime. The project, Bajo del Toro, expects US$25B exports between 2027-2055. YPF plans two more projects, totaling US$44B investment. YPF reported Q3 profit of US$1.2B and Q3 EBITDA of US$2.5B.

YPF reported Q3 capital spending of $1.3B, up 26% YoY, and reaffirmed its full-year target of $5.8B-$6.2B. Refinery throughput averaged 344K barrels/day, down 2% QoQ but up 5% YoY. Domestic fuel volumes fell 4% sequentially but rose 2% YoY, with a 58% market share. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded to $32/barrel. Free cash flow was supported by $2.5B EBITDA and $175M from M&A. YPF issued a $1.2B bond and repurchased $530M of bonds.

Crude oil rose 2% on 30 October 2026, hitting a six-month high after a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Petrobras gained 0.68% to $22.05, while Ecopetrol and YPF fell. The USO fund closed at $168.83, up 0.38%. Political and geopolitical factors influenced Latin American oil shares.

Petrobras discovered oil in its third interval at the Morpho well off Brazil's Amapá coast, with light crude quality. Brazil's oil production is up 17% year-over-year, with OPEC projecting 4.8 million bpd for 2026. Ibama approved three more wells, but the discovery's timing raises climate concerns ahead of COP30 in Belém.