Sandisk Lost 14% in a Week on Kioxia’s Warning. Wedbush Still Sees $2,000
Sandisk (SNDK) shares dropped 14% in a week after Kioxia, its fab partner, warned of fading flash price gains. Intel (INTC) also cited memory cost pressures. Despite record Q1 revenue of $11B and an 85% gross margin, Sandisk's stock fell. Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating and $2,000 target, citing below-average multiples.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
For traders, the actionable element is the market’s shift in NAND pricing expectations, which affects Sandisk’s ability to beat its second-quarter guide and sustain normalized EPS growth.
Market read
NAND pricing expectations are the immediate driver, with contract floors providing partial insulation but not eliminating near-term earnings risk.
What to watch
The article notes Sandisk’s record quarter and still-strong gross margin, so the market may be over-weighting near-term pricing stall versus contract-protected volumes.
Background
The piece frames Sandisk’s selloff as a read-through from Kioxia’s warning that flash price gains are fading, with Intel’s margin guide used as additional confirmation of the buyer-side squeeze.
Ticker impact
Sandisk shares fell 14% after Kioxia warned flash price gains are fading, and Sandisk’s own price increases slowed.
Likely further downside pressure as the market reprices near-term NAND pricing and Sandisk’s ability to beat its second-quarter guide.
The article ties the selloff directly to Kioxia’s pricing warning and to Sandisk’s modest price-increase guidance, with the key debate being whether pricing stall shows up in upcoming quarters.
Intel’s weaker margin guide is cited as reinforcing the buyer-side squeeze, with adjusted gross margin expected to fall on a PC slump.
Likely negative read-through for memory pricing and demand expectations, though Intel is not the primary subject of the selloff.
The article uses Intel’s guidance to corroborate the squeeze thesis, but it does not present Intel as the direct driver of Sandisk’s specific guidance or contracts.
Market effects
Reinforces NAND flash pricing normalization risk, pressuring the memory supply chain narrative and near-term earnings sensitivity to pricing.
Highlights Japan-based Kioxia’s guidance as a key read-through for global flash pricing expectations.
Can influence broader semiconductor sentiment via memory-cycle expectations and cross-asset risk appetite.
Counterpoint
Price-floor contracts cover about half of fiscal 2027 output and two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits, which may limit earnings downside even if spot pricing cools.
Key entities
- companySandisk
US-listed flash memory supplier whose stock fell 14% on pricing-cycle concerns and guidance sensitivity.
- companyKioxia
Fab partner whose December-quarter operating profit guidance signaled fading flash price gains.
- companyIntel
Used as a corroborating datapoint via weaker margin guidance tied to PC slump and memory shortages.
- brokerWedbush
Maintained an Outperform rating and reiterated a $2,000 target despite the selloff.
