Polls Open for the Midterms as Event Contracts Show Up in Third-Quarter Results

NEW YORK, Nov. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Market Updates News Commentary - Voters across the United States are casting ballots in today's midterm elections, and contracts tied to which party will control the House and the Senate are changing hands on prediction market platforms while the polls are open. For the exchanges, brokers and data providers connected to those markets, the activity has also been showing up in third-quarter results reported over the past two weeks. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD), Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME), Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), Sportradar Group AG (Nasdaq: SRAD).

As of 10:32 a.m. ET, Kalshi's contract on whether Democrats will win the House in 2026 had last traded at $0.938, and its contract on whether Republicans will win the House at $0.063, according to Kalshi's public market data. Kalshi's Senate contracts had last traded at $0.77 for Democrats and $0.25 for Republicans. On Polymarket's international platform at the same time, the contract on whether the Democratic Party will control the House after the 2026 midterm elections had last traded at $0.95, and the matching Republican contract at $0.06; its Senate control contracts had last traded at $0.77 for the Democratic Party and $0.24 for the Republican Party. These are prices set by traders on each platform, not forecasts by Market Updates, and no results had been reported as of that time.

The rules around these markets are still being written. In a proposed rule published in the Federal Register on June 12, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it preliminarily believes that its earlier Nadex Order and Kalshi Order were incorrect to find that event contracts involving political elections involve gaming; written comments were due by July 27. On October 27, the CFTC said it had filed a lawsuit against Utah to block the state's efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets using state laws, and that it has initiated legal proceedings against nine other states. "Congress entrusted the CFTC to be the federal regulator with sole responsibility to oversee these markets," CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said.

For listed companies, the exposure takes different forms. Some run their own prediction market products, some hold stakes in platforms or joint ventures, and some sell the data and technology those venues use. Third-quarter filings released since October 21 put figures on several of those relationships.

Event-driven sessions can move share prices quickly. The free Knowledge is Power guide from Stock Preachers, available at market-updates.com/, shows how to read those moves on the chart before deciding what they mean.

In other industry developments and happenings in the market this week include:

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD)

Robinhood reported on October 27 that event contracts revenue reached $173 million in the third quarter, up over 6x year over year, helping lift transaction-based revenues 19% to $867 million. Event Contracts Traded rose over 7x to a record 16.4 billion, counted through the company's Prediction Markets Hub, where each contract can be traded at $0.01 increments up to $1 and is worth $1 upon settlement. Rothera, Robinhood's joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, reached over $100 million in annualized revenues in its first full quarter of operation. Total net revenues rose 12% to $1.42 billion, while net income decreased 14% to $476 million.

"Our vision is to make everyone an owner, because broad ownership is essential to a free, stable, and prosperous society," said Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO of Robinhood.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE)

Intercontinental Exchange, whose exchanges include the New York Stock Exchange, reported on October 29 third-quarter net revenues of $2.8 billion, up 15%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.02, up 18%. In its quarterly report dated the same day, ICE said the total carrying value of its Series D and E preferred stock investments in Polymarket, which it describes as a prediction market and information platform tracking event probabilities across markets, politics, sport and culture, was approximately $2.0 billion as of September 30. Those holdings represented approximately 22% of Polymarket's outstanding shares and 14% on a fully diluted basis, and ICE also completed a tender offer in April for approximately 0.4 million Polymarket common shares for $40 million.

"We're pleased to report the best third quarter in ICE's history, with revenues, operating income and earnings per share each growing by double digits," said Jeff Sprecher, ICE Chair & Chief Executive Officer.

CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME)

CME Group reported on October 21 third-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.89, with average daily volume reaching a third-quarter record of 29.4 million contracts. On prediction markets, FanDuel and CME Group said in November 2025 that the FanDuel Predicts app would provide access, subject to appropriate regulatory filings, to sports event contracts, available to customers in states where online sports betting is not yet legal, with event contracts also planned on benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, oil and gas prices, gold, cryptocurrencies, and economic indicators such as GDP and CPI. CME's third-quarter results include amortization of purchased intangibles at FanDuel Prediction Markets Holdings LLC, reported in equity in net earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries.

"As uncertainty intensified in Q3, clients turned to CME Group in record numbers to manage risk and capitalize on opportunities," said Terry Duffy, CME Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE)

Cboe Global Markets reported on October 30 third-quarter net revenue of $712.2 million, up 18 percent, and record diluted EPS of $4.08, up 43 percent, and raised its 2026 organic total net revenue growth target to "high teens" from "mid to high teens." In the same release, Chief Executive Officer Craig Donohue said the company advanced its Cboe Predicts offering and its clearing capabilities during the quarter and recently received the SEC approvals needed to list and clear its company-KPI event contracts, in anticipation of a November launch.

"Our strong momentum continued in the third quarter as we took important steps to advance our growth strategy," said Craig Donohue, Chief Executive Officer of Cboe Global Markets.

Sportradar Group AG (Nasdaq: SRAD)

Sportradar reported this morning that third-quarter revenue rose 24% to €363 million and that it entered new and expanded partnerships with leading prediction market exchanges, brokers and market makers. Betting Technology & Solutions revenues climbed 27% to €297 million, which the company attributed mainly to a 37% increase in Betting & Gaming Content tied to the IMG ARENA acquisition and to further uptake of its products and services by existing and new customers, prediction market participants among them. Revenue in the United States rose 47%.

"Our performance was driven by strong demand for our premium content portfolio, deep data and innovative technology solutions, including further monetization of the acquired IMG ARENA rights and significant contributions from across the prediction markets landscape," said Carsten Koerl, Chief Executive Officer of Sportradar.

Results will come only after the polls close. For these five companies, event contracts were already part of the third-quarter story. Learn to read event-driven setups with the free Stock Preachers guide, plus The Roadmap market reports, at market-updates.com/.

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This article is independent news commentary. Market Updates is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited ("MEL"), a company incorporated under the laws of Ireland. MEL has not been paid by any company mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and affiliates do not currently own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article, but reserve the right to, and will, buy and sell shares of those companies at any time without further notice. Prediction market prices are last-traded prices read from Kalshi's public market data and the public market data for Polymarket's international platform at 10:32 a.m. ET on November 3, 2026; they are prices set by market participants, not forecasts by Market Updates or MEL, and no election results had been reported at that time. Company information is as reported in Robinhood's October 27, 2026, CME Group's October 21, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange's October 29, 2026, Cboe Global Markets' October 30, 2026 and Sportradar's November 3, 2026 releases, Intercontinental Exchange's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and the FanDuel and CME Group release of November 12, 2025; regulatory information is from the CFTC's October 27, 2026 release and its proposed rule published in the Federal Register on June 12, 2026. Information is drawn from company news releases and filings, government and industry data, published reporting and third-party data believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing in securities carries risk, including the loss of some or all of your investment. This document is governed by the laws of Ireland.

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