third quarter 2026
Filed Oct 30, 2026Dauch preliminarily expects a third-quarter net loss of $42 million to $47 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $355 million to $360 million while raising its full-year sales target and lowering its Adjusted EBITDA target.
The company increased its full-year sales outlook to $10.8 billion to $10.875 billion but reduced its Adjusted EBITDA target to $1.350 billion to $1.375 billion amid customer production volatility, rising inflation and increasing energy costs.
Key metrics
shortened, hover for the filing’s print| Metric | Value | q/q | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Third quarter net loss attributable to DauchGAAP | $42 million to $47 million | – | – |
| Third quarter EBITDAnon-GAAP | $267 million to $272 million | – | – |
| Third quarter Adjusted EBITDAnon-GAAP | $355 million to $360 million | – | – |
| Third quarter interest expenseGAAP | $87M | – | – |
| Third quarter income tax expenseGAAP | $14M | – | – |
| Third quarter depreciation and amortizationGAAP | $213M | – | – |
| Third quarter restructuring and acquisition-related costsother | $47M | – | – |
| Third quarter debt refinancing and redemption costsother | $1M | – | – |
| Third quarter unrealized foreign exchange loss on acquired U.S. Private Placement Notesother | $3M | – | – |
| Third quarter mark-to-market on nondesignated derivatives assumed as part of the Business Combination with Dowlaisother | $31M | – | – |
| Third quarter loss (gain) on disposal of property, plant and equipmentother | $0 million | – | – |
| Third quarter amortization of acquisition intangible asset attributable to SDSother | $6M | – | – |
Full Year 2026 outlook
- Revenue$10.8 billion to $10.875 billion
- NoteAdjusted EBITDA: $1.350 billion to $1.375 billion
- NoteNet loss: $(220) million to $(195) million
- NoteInterest expense: $355 million
- NoteIncome tax expense: $0 million
- NoteDepreciation and amortization: $825 million
- NoteFull year 2026 targeted EBITDA: $960 million to $985 million
- NoteAcquisition-related costs: $60 million
- NoteRestructuring costs: $100 million
- NoteSynergy integration costs: $110 million
- NoteAcquisition-related fair value inventory adjustment: $38 million
- NoteAmortization of acquisition intangible asset attributable to SDS: $25 million
- NoteUnrealized foreign exchange loss on acquired U.S. Private Placement Notes: $15 million
- NoteMark-to-market on nondesignated derivatives assumed as part of the Business Combination with Dowlais: $50 million
- NoteOther: $(8) million
- NoteAdjusted free cash flow target range is expected to be narrowed closer to the previously announced midpoint of that range.
- NoteNorth America production outlook: ~15.0 million
- NoteEurope production outlook: ~17.2 million
- NoteChina production outlook: ~31.0 million
- NoteGlobal production outlook: ~91.6 million
What drove it
- Full-year 2026 sales outlook includes the effects from metal market pass-throughs.
- Dauch cited select customer production volatility, rising inflation, and increasing energy costs as macro headwinds into the fourth quarter.
- The Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation includes restructuring and acquisition-related costs, debt refinancing and redemption costs, unrealized foreign exchange loss, mark-to-market on nondesignated derivatives, and amortization of an acquisition intangible asset attributable to SDS.
Concerns
- Third-quarter results are preliminary, based on current estimates, and remain subject to change following closing, review and internal-control procedures.
- Dauch expects a third-quarter net loss attributable to Dauch of $42 million to $47 million.
- The full-year Adjusted EBITDA target was adjusted to $1.350 billion to $1.375 billion from the previously announced target of $1.360 billion to $1.425 billion.
- Macro headwinds cited by the company include select customer production volatility, rising inflation, and increasing energy costs.
What to watch
- Final third-quarter results to be released before market open on Friday, November 6, 2026.
- Whether the preliminary third-quarter net-loss and Adjusted EBITDA ranges change after completion of closing and review procedures.
- The final narrowed Adjusted free cash flow target range, which was not quantified in the filing.
- Fourth-quarter customer production volatility, inflation and energy costs.
- Delivery against the full-year sales target of $10.8 billion to $10.875 billion and Adjusted EBITDA target of $1.350 billion to $1.375 billion.
Analysis
Dauch disclosed preliminary third-quarter 2026 results rather than a complete earnings release. The company expects a net loss attributable to Dauch of $42 million to $47 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $355 million to $360 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The preliminary reconciliation identifies EBITDA of $267 million to $272 million before $47 million of restructuring and acquisition-related costs, $31 million of mark-to-market on nondesignated derivatives assumed in the Dowlais business combination, and other listed adjustments.
The full-year sales target was raised to $10.8 billion to $10.875 billion from the previously announced target of $10.6 billion to $10.8 billion. Dauch stated that the sales outlook includes the effects from metal market pass-throughs. The filing does not report third-quarter revenue, segment revenue, revenue growth, gross margin, operating income, net income per share, or cash-flow results, so underlying demand and mix cannot be assessed from this preliminary disclosure.
Profitability guidance moved in the opposite direction. Dauch adjusted its full-year Adjusted EBITDA target to $1.350 billion to $1.375 billion, compared with its previously announced target of $1.360 billion to $1.425 billion. The company attributed the adjustment to macro headwinds continuing into the fourth quarter, specifically select customer production volatility, rising inflation, and increasing energy costs. The full-year reconciliation assumes net loss of $(220) million to $(195) million, interest expense of $355 million, depreciation and amortization of $825 million, restructuring costs of $100 million, and synergy integration costs of $110 million.
The release provides no capital-return activity, balance-sheet balances, operating cash flow, free cash flow, capital expenditures, or debt data. Dauch said the previously announced Adjusted free cash flow target range will be narrowed closer to the midpoint of that range, but did not disclose a revised numerical range. The company will issue full third-quarter results before market open on Friday, November 6, 2026, and the preliminary figures remain subject to change upon completion of closing, review and internal-control procedures.
Not in the filing
stated, not guessed- Third-quarter total revenue
- Third-quarter revenue prior-year comparison
- Third-quarter revenue prior-quarter comparison
- Third-quarter revenue growth
- Segment revenue and segment growth
- Third-quarter gross profit and gross margin
- Third-quarter operating income or loss
- Third-quarter GAAP diluted EPS
- Third-quarter non-GAAP diluted EPS
- Third-quarter net income or loss prior-year comparison
- Third-quarter operating cash flow
- Third-quarter free cash flow
- Third-quarter capital expenditures
- Cash balance
- Debt balance
- Share repurchases
- Dividends
- Full-year gross-margin guidance
- Full-year operating-expense guidance
- Full-year tax-rate guidance
- Numerical full-year Adjusted free cash flow guidance
- Prior outlook section provided separately for formal actual-versus-guidance comparison
AlphAI analysis generated from the company’s SEC earnings filing (Form 8-K Item 2.02, or Form 6-K for a foreign private issuer). Every figure was cross-checked against the filing text; consensus estimates, price targets and share-price reactions are not shown because they are not in the filing. AI-generated research, not investment advice.