Third quarter 2026
Filed Oct 13, 2026NOG Provides Third Quarter Operational Update
NOG reported a clean operating quarter and continued ground game execution, but expects substantial unrealized derivative mark-to-market losses and realized hedge losses. Third-quarter capital spending is expected to rise sequentially, while the company reiterated 2026 capital-expenditure guidance without disclosing the underlying range in this release.
Key metrics
shortened, hover for the filing’s print| Metric | Value | q/q | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Third quarter 2026 capital expenditures (estimated, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other)other | $250.0 to $253.0 million | increased sequential capital spend | – |
| Third quarter 2026 unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivatives (expected)other | $300.0 to $320.0 million | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 realized hedge losses (estimated)other | $51.0 to $52.0 million | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 ground game deals closedother | 19 deals | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 net acres addedother | approximately 1,060 net acres | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 net wells addedother | 2.8 net wells | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 acquisition costs and associated development capital deployedother | approximately $56.5 million | – | – |
| Capital deployed to Permian, Williston, and Uinta basinsother | nearly 85% | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 shares repurchasedother | 667,989 shares of common stock | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 share repurchasesother | $16.0 million inclusive of commissions | – | – |
| Third quarter 2026 average share repurchase price, inclusive of commissionsother | $23.96 per share | – | – |
| Common stock repurchase program increase authorized in July 2026other | $150M | – | – |
| Remaining common stock repurchase capacity after third-quarter repurchasesother | approximately $227.2 million | – | – |
| Quarterly cash dividend declared on August 4, 2026other | $0.45 | – | – |
Third quarter 2026 and 2026 outlook
- NoteThird quarter capital expenditures are expected to be $250.0 to $253.0 million, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other.
- NoteCapital expenditures are expected to trend lower in the fourth quarter, absent significant non-budgeted activity.
- NoteThe Company reiterates its 2026 capital expenditures guidance.
- NoteBased on current pace, NOG expects capital spending to be toward the higher end of the range.
Capital returns
- On August 4, 2026, the Company declared a $0.45 quarterly cash dividend, payable on October 30, 2026.
- Repurchased 667,989 shares of common stock in the third quarter for a total of $16.0 million inclusive of commissions.
- The average repurchase price, inclusive of commissions, was $23.96 per share.
- In July 2026, the Board of Directors authorized a $150.0 million increase to the common stock repurchase program.
- Remaining repurchase capacity was approximately $227.2 million after consideration for repurchases in the quarter.
What drove it
- NOG described a clean operational quarter with minimal field disruptions.
- Oil strip prices rallied, and the company saw incremental acceleration of development activity across its oil basins.
- NOG closed 19 ground game deals, adding approximately 1,060 net acres and 2.8 net wells.
- Spend was more heavily focused toward near-term production in oil-focused basins, with nearly 85% of capital deployed to the Permian, Williston, and Uinta basins.
- Expected unrealized derivative losses were driven by changes to the value of the derivatives portfolio.
- Estimated realized hedge losses were driven by crude oil hedges and were partially offset by gas and basis hedges.
Concerns
- Third-quarter unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivatives are expected to be $300.0 to $320.0 million.
- Third-quarter realized hedge losses are estimated at $51.0 to $52.0 million.
- Third-quarter preliminary financial and operating information is based on estimates and remains subject to completion of financial closing procedures.
- Actual results may differ materially from preliminary estimates because of final adjustments, completed financial closing procedures, and developments after the release date.
- The company said third-quarter activity accelerated and drove increased sequential capital spend.
What to watch
- Final third-quarter financial and operating results following completion of NOG's financial closing procedures.
- The final amount of third-quarter derivative mark-to-market losses and realized hedge losses.
- Whether fourth-quarter capital expenditures trend lower as expected, absent significant non-budgeted activity.
- Capital spending relative to the higher end of NOG's reiterated 2026 capital-expenditures guidance range.
- Further ground game acquisition activity and its concentration in the Permian, Williston, and Uinta basins.
- Execution of the October 30, 2026 quarterly cash dividend payment and use of approximately $227.2 million of remaining repurchase capacity.
Analysis
This filing is a preliminary third-quarter operational update rather than a comprehensive earnings release. NOG reported a clean quarter with minimal field disruptions, and said all basins met internal expectations. Management linked incremental acceleration of development activity across oil basins to rallied oil strip prices, indicating a more active operating environment during the quarter.
Ground game activity remained active. NOG closed 19 deals that added approximately 1,060 net acres and 2.8 net wells, while deploying approximately $56.5 million in acquisition costs and associated development capital. The capital mix was concentrated in near-term production opportunities in oil-focused basins, with nearly 85% of capital deployed to the Permian, Williston, and Uinta basins.
Capital spending is the principal operating item disclosed for the period. Total booked third-quarter capital spending is estimated at $250.0 to $253.0 million, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other. The company said accelerated current and forward activity drove increased sequential capital spend. It expects expenditures to trend lower in the fourth quarter absent significant non-budgeted activity, while reiterating 2026 capital-expenditures guidance and expecting spending toward the higher end of that undisclosed range.
Hedging results are the major offset in the update. NOG expects third-quarter unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivatives of $300.0 to $320.0 million, driven by changes in the value of its derivatives portfolio. It also estimates realized hedge losses of $51.0 to $52.0 million, driven by crude oil hedges and partially offset by gas and basis hedges. The filing provides no revenue, profitability, production, cash-flow, or balance-sheet figures, so the ultimate earnings and cash-flow effect of these items cannot be assessed from this document.
Capital returns continued through both dividends and buybacks. NOG declared a $0.45 quarterly cash dividend on August 4, 2026, payable on October 30, 2026. It repurchased 667,989 shares for $16.0 million inclusive of commissions at an average price of $23.96 per share. Following a $150.0 million authorization increase in July 2026, remaining repurchase capacity was approximately $227.2 million after the quarter's repurchases. All third-quarter information in the release is preliminary and subject to final closing adjustments.
Not in the filing
stated, not guessed- Period end date.
- GAAP total revenue and any prior-year or prior-quarter comparison.
- Segment revenue and segment-level comparisons.
- GAAP gross profit or gross margin.
- GAAP operating income or loss and operating margin.
- GAAP net income or loss.
- GAAP diluted EPS.
- Non-GAAP earnings, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, or non-GAAP EPS.
- Production volumes, commodity pricing, lease operating expenses, and other operating-cost metrics.
- Operating cash flow.
- Free cash flow.
- Cash and cash equivalents.
- Total debt, net debt, liquidity, or borrowing-capacity figures.
- Detailed 2026 capital-expenditures guidance range.
- Revenue, gross margin, operating-expense, and tax-rate guidance.
- Prior-period guidance for comparison.
- Named executive commentary or attributable executive quotes.
AlphAI analysis generated from the company’s SEC earnings filing (Form 8-K Item 2.02, or Form 6-K for a foreign private issuer). Every figure was cross-checked against the filing text; consensus estimates, price targets and share-price reactions are not shown because they are not in the filing. AI-generated research, not investment advice.